NFL First Coach Fired Betting Props with Expert Wagering Predictions
There are only two things we can be absolutely certain of heading into any NFL season - Jerry Jones will say at least three stupid things during the season, and several coaches will be fired by the time the playoffs get started. As a bettor I can't really profit off the first - no one is willing to bet that he won't - but I can try to profit off the last. Who will be the first NFL head coach fired this year? Of course, there are odds:
Hue Jackson, Cleveland (+275): When you have gone 1-31 in the first two years on the job it can't be too much of a surprise that you are favored to be shown the door. The team has a pretty tough schedule out of the gate, with the Jets in Week 3 the softest spot. If they don't look good there, or if the transition to Baker Mayfield is not handled ideally, then Jackson could be gone by the Week 11 bye week, if not sooner. The team has Todd Haley and Gregg Williams as coordinators, so a choice of experienced head coaches is already in the building for an interim gig. Jackson is a deserving favorite.
Vance Joseph, Denver (+600): There were few people who thought that hiring Joseph was a good idea last year and even fewer who had come around after his five-win season last year. John Elway wants to win, and he paid Case Keenum to help them do so. If Joseph can't win then Elway will find someone who can. He's not as likely as Jackson - in part because he has been on the job for only a year and in part because getting rid of his early would be a major admission of fault for Elway - but there are good reasons why he is the second favorite.
Adam Gase, Miami (+650): He had an excellent year in 2016 in his debut, and the Ryan Tannehill injury and subsequent Jay Cutler debacle weren't entirely his fault. And he doesn't exactly have the best roster in the league to work with this year. If I were in charge I would give him more time, but I'm not and I wouldn't be too surprised if he took the fall. He is far more likely to last than the two before him, though, so I don't like the value here at all.
Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay (+750): Will Koetter get the benefit of the doubt because the team's quarterback is an idiot who got himself suspended? Or will the coach take the blame for the likely rough results that will come with the QB out - added to the fact that said QB regressed badly last year under Koetter? We'll have a better sense of what will happen after the first loss or two and the reaction within the team and in the media that comes from those results.
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati (+900): Let's just accept at this point that Lewis will never be fired. He is tactically incompetent, couldn't motivate a panda to eat bamboo, and enables and seemingly encourages criminal behavior among his players. However, he just keeps getting extensions. Wins aren't required in Cincinnati, apparently. At some point the collection of hooligans he assembles will burn down the stadium in a criminal rampage, and the last thing to come out of team headquarters before it falls in the flames will be the press release announcing another two-year extension for Lewis. He is the most stunningly bulletproof man in the world.
Todd Bowles, New York Jets (+1200): Bowles is wildly underwhelming, and if I had my say he would have been long gone - probably before last season even started. But after three seasons and 20 wins - five in each of the last two years - the team gave him a three-year extension in December. The Jets are consistently stupid, so looking at what they have gotten over the last three years and thinking they would really like to lock down three more years of that is entirely consistent with what we have come to expect from them. It amazes me how New York is such a brutal media market yet both teams there consistently give coaches much more rope than they deserve. I think Bowles is by far the most stable coach on this list - aside from Lewis, of course, who will still be coaching the Bengals years after our alien overlords have vaporized the planet and Paul Brown stadium is drifting through space on a desolate, crime-ridden and comically-underprepared asteroid.
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