Expert NFL Picks for Wide Receiver Season Betting Props
It is a time of incredible passing in the NFL right now, which means that it is an incredible time for receivers. And that should make it a very interesting time to bet on how receivers are going to perform. You can bet on who will have the most receiving yards, but the far more interesting race is who will have the most receiving touchdowns. It's a much tighter and more competitive race, and you can make a case for a lot of different guys. Here's a look at the most interesting parts of this race:
Davante Adams, Green Bay (+700): Adams was tied for second in touchdowns last year with 13. Aaron Rodgers was fine last year but didn't seem to be near his best. The change of coaching staff - including an offensive coordinator that Rodgers reportedly didn't have a big say in choosing - is a bit of a concern, but there is a decent chance that Rodgers has a better year, And Adams is his favorite target. I get why he is the favorite, and I can't argue with the reasoning, but I am not loving the Packers right now, so I'll be looking elsewhere for a little more value.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (+750): As with Adams, I have more respect for the player than the situation here. Hopkins is excellent, but Bill O'Brien is determined to get himself fired, and I don't like much about Houston right now. He had 11 touchdowns last year and is certainly capable of more, but there is enough working against him that I don't see a ton of value here.
Travis Kelce, TE (+800) and Tyreek Hill, Kansas City (+800): These two teammates will be discussed together because they are at the same price. Last year Hill caught 12 of Patrick Mahomes' 50 touchdown passes, and Kelce caught 10. Kelce is the best tight end in the game, but he'd need to take a big step forward this year - and Mahomes will need to accomplish close to the same ridiculous passing numbers. I'm not interested in either of these guys at this price.
Antonio Brown, Oakland (+900): Brown was tops on this category last year, with 15 touchdowns in 15 games. He's in a new system, though, and has a quarterback who is less effective as a passer getting him the ball. And he seems to barely have a grasp on reality at this point - he has even been crazy lately compared to his norm. But he's a freakish talent, and the Raiders need him to be the centerpiece of this passing offense. The value is decent in this price.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay (+1200): Evans had just eight touchdowns last year and five the year before, so he is not in top form, but he had 12 in both 2016 and 2014, which would be more competitive here. To bet on him, you are trusting that Bruce Arians can get the Bucs back on track in a hurry and that Jameis Winston will be strong. It could happen, but there is no value in betting at this price that it will.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland (+1200): Despite his massive talent, Beckham had just six touchdown catches in 12 games last year, which is clear proof of just how lousy Eli Manning is at this stage in his career. Beckham has lost good chunks of the last two years to injury, and any number attached to the Browns in inflated right now. So, while I am bullish on Beckham, I don't love this price.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh (+1400): If I could make just one bet, it would take me about two seconds to land on this spot. It feels like a bit of a no-brainer, really. Smith-Schuster had 7 touchdowns last year and did it while being no more than the 1A option in his offense. Now Brown is gone, so Smith-Schuster is the top target in an offense that is very good at passing. There is real upside here. I love the value.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis (+3300): I don't think that Hilton is a real contender here. The only reason I put him in is that he provides an interesting insight into the perception of the impact of the loss of Andrew Luck. Hilton was Luck's favorite target, and it was a very beneficial relationship for both guys. Yet the numbers for Hilton both here and in receiving yards did not move after the retirement was announced. He's going to be a big target in this offense no matter who is passing, so it doesn't hugely matter who is taking snaps. That likely wouldn't be the case if he was among the favorites, but as a longer shot it doesn't have much impact at all.
Want free NFL picks? Doc's has you covered. New clients can take advantage of this great offer of $60 in free Doc's Sports members' picks for any handicapper on Doc's Expert Handicapper list. Just check out these guys' pages and see what great work they have done making money for themselves and their clients over the years. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
Get all of this Weeks NFL picks
Get all of this Weeks Guaranteed Expert NFL Picks