Week 9 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone
Came up one game short on NFL teasers last week, but still had a nicely profitable 3-1 week, knocking down two- and three-game teasers. That takes my record to 25-7 for the season, hanging in the high-quality, money-making area of 75 to 80 percent. Once again, had to work harder to find value plays for teasers, but I believe it will pay off as I like the overall card.
For those new to this space, I'm the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports. And it will take a while for many of you learn what I am about and my sports betting style. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds. This is a condensed version of the most pertinent information for your usage for NFL picks, which is after all four plays.
Below are my Week 9 NFL Predictions.
San Francisco at Arizona - Oct. 31 - 49ers Taken From -10 to -4 over Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers continue to look and play like one of the best teams in the NFL. They absolutely blasted Carolina 51-13. Other than the all-day rain game against Washington, where the Niners were less aggressive, they have played hard and fast against everyone else. There is a little concern playing a short week and traveling to the suddenly cool Arizona desert , which is why I don't mind grabbing them underneath the key numbers of 6 and 7 for this teaser. Look for the San Fran pass rush and running game to be the difference, and the visitor moves to 14-4 on the teaser line where the cactus grow tall.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: 49ers -4
Washington at Buffalo - Nov. 3 - Bills Taken From -9.5 to -3.5 over Redskins
Buffalo was blown out by Philadelphia by 18 points at home for their second loss of the season last week. That raises some doubt heading into Week 9. After permitting 14 PPG in their first five starts, the Bills have been tagged for 26 PPG in their past two outings. While Washington's offense is about as threatening as a pack of kittens, it never hurts in the NFL to err on the side of caution. That is why lowering Buffalo down this far adds value in what seems like a low-scoring affair with a great deal of below-average quarterback play. The Bills come in 17-4 on the teaser line in home games versus teams who give up 24 or more points a game in the second half of the season.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Bills -3.5
Tampa Bay at Seattle - Nov. 3 - Seahawks Taken From -6 to Pick over Buccaneers
Seattle might be 6-2, but the defense doesn't deserve much credit. The days of the Legion of Boom has gone the way of -- Vine -- and is no more. Coach Pete Carroll's defense now ranks 20th in points allowed (24.5) and 23rd in yards given up (376.4). The Seahawks will face a Tampa Bay offense that is quite good at two elements. The first is scoring, going in at 28 PPG, which is noteworthy and why Seattle dress's up better in a teaser as a Pick. The second part is the Buccaneers' capacity to turn the ball over, as in having 11 miscues in the past two games, which helps Seattle. The last eight times Tampa Bay played after posting two of more "Overs", they have lost by 9.6 PPG.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Seahawks Pick
Dallas at N.Y. Giants - Nov. 4 - Cowboys Taken From -7 to -1 over Giants
These two NFC East rivals collided in the season opener, and Dallas won 35-17 as a seven-point home favorite. As the season has played out, both teams are about as expected, which makes it curious why the Cowboys are again favored by a touchdown, this time on the road. If you've watched New York, you realize their defense is rather feeble, and Dallas definitely as the weaponry to assault them just like last time. Still, falling below the key numbers of 6 and 3 sure seems important, and the 'Boys are 16-0 against a teaser line versus teams allowing 350 or more yards a game.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Cowboys -1
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those NFL key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two-, three- or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet, when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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