Packers vs. 49ers Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
Future Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers grew up not far from the San Francisco area in Chico, Calif., and was a huge fan of Joe Montana's. On Sunday, Rodgers can punch his second career trip to the Super Bowl by upsetting the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game . It's a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, which hosts an NFC title game for the first time.
Early lines have San Francisco as a 1-point underdog for a potential Super Bowl LIV matchup vs. Kansas City and Green Bay at +4.5. The Niners opened at -4 in a matchup vs. the Tennessee Titans and the Packers -1. I promise you that the officials at Fox TV are praying for a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl. And I promise you that the officials at State Farm and whatever public relations firm that company uses are praying even harder for Chiefs-Packers because of course those State Farm commercials featuring Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers and Packers have met seven times in the playoffs, last in a Wild-Card Game on Jan. 5, 2014, at Lambeau Field. Colin Kaepernick led a 23-20 Niners win on a brutally cold day. Phil Dawson kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired. Rodgers was held to 177 yards passing. Green Bay leads the postseason series 4-3. The most memorable one had to be Jan. 3, 1999, at the old 3COM Park when Steve Young hit Terrell Owens on the winning 25-yard TD pass with three seconds left. That's often called "The Catch II" by Niners fans and the call of "Owens, Owens, Owens!!!" by the San Francisco radio guys is legendary.
It's the first conference championship game for the 49ers since following that 2013 season as the Niners went to Carolina after beating Green Bay and won 23-10 before losing in Seattle 23-17. The Packers' last NFC title visit was following the 2016 season when they were dominated in Atlanta.
San Francisco is +165 to win the Super Bowl and Green Bay +800. Jimmy Garoppolo is +350 to win Super Bowl MVP and Rodgers +900.
Packers at 49ers Betting Story Lines
San Francisco's 16th trip to a conference title game ties the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most since the 1970 merger. The Niners are 6-9 in them. Green Bay is 5-4 all-time in this game. It's the fourth one for Rodgers and he is 1-2, all of them away from home.
The 49ers have the benefit of an extra day off as they played last Saturday in the Divisional Round and spanked the No. 6 Minnesota Vikings 27-10. The 147 total yards and 21 rushing yards allowed were franchise-playoff lows for San Francisco, and the seven Vikings first downs were tied for the third-fewest in any NFL playoff game. The Niners got back three key defensive starters from injury after each had missed multiple weeks, led by pass-rusher Dee Ford. He had a sack and likely NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa had two.
Garoppolo threw for only 131 yards - fewest-ever as a starter -- with a TD and a pick and that might be a bit worrisome if the Niners didn't gash a good Minnesota defense for 186 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Tevin Coleman was the primary guy with 22 carries for 105 yards and both scores. He had been behind Raheem Mostert (12 carries, 58 yards). Mostert did say he was limited by a cramp.
Green Bay's Matt LaFleur is looking to become only the sixth person to reach the Super Bowl in his first year as a head coach. The others were Jim Caldwell (2009 Colts, lost); Bill Callahan (2002 Raiders, lost); George Seifert (1989 49ers, won); Red Miller (1977 Broncos, lost); and Don McCafferty (1970 Colts, won).
The Packers looked great in the first half last week in leading visiting Seattle 21-3 but then had to hang on for dear life in a 28-23 win. In his 17th career playoff start, Rodgers threw for two scores and now has 38 TD passes, fifth-most in playoff history. Expect the Niners' secondary to bracket Davante Adams on Sunday after he torched Seattle for eight catches, 160 yards and two scores. Aaron Jones rushed for two scores to give him 21 total TDs on the season, tops in the NFL.
Packers at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends
San Francisco is a 9-point favorite (+110) with a total of 45. On the moneyline, the 49ers are -345 and Packers +285. On some alternate lines, the Niners are -10 (+130), 10.5 (+145), -7.5 (-105), -7 (-125) and -6.5 (-145). Green Bay is 5-3 against the spread on the road and 3-5 "over/under." San Francisco is 4-4-1 ATS at home and 5-4 O/U.
The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven after a loss and 4-1 ATS in their past five road playoff games. The Niners are 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 as favorites and 2-7 ATS in their previous nine following a win of at least 14 points. The over is 5-1 in Green Bay's past six playoff games. It's 6-2-1 in San Francisco's past nine as a favorite. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 7-3 in the previous 10.
Packers at 49ers Betting Prediction
All-time, Green Bay is 12-19-1 at the 49ers, which includes 2-2 in the postseason. The Packers are 0-2 at Levi's Stadium after losing there 37-8 in Week 12. Rodgers had one of his worst games in attempting 33 passes and gaining only 104 yards on them (second-lowest total in a game he started and didn't leave hurt). That's a ridiculous 3.2 yards per attempt. He was sacked five times and lost a fumble. Garoppolo was much better, going 14-for-20 for 253 yards and two scores, to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The game was essentially over at the half with San Francisco up 23-0.
While San Francisco has lost twice since then, the Packers haven't. I think Green Bay has an excellent chance of the outright win here, but I'll take 7.5 points. Go over the total.
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