New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 9/11/2022 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Dolphins (-3)

Total/Over-Under: 46

The New England Patriots (10-7 last year) are on their way to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday where they will attempt to defeat the Miami Dolphins (9-8 last season). Miami opens as 3-point favorites. The over/under is 46.

The New England Patriots finished the year with a 10-7 record. In their last game of last year, the Patriots played against the Bills and took a loss by a score of 47-17. Mac Jones finished 24/38 with 232 yds passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rate of 75.8 and walked away from the contest with 2 interceptions. Kendrick Bourne held an average of 11.0 yds per reception by totaling 77 yards on 7 receptions. Damien Harris was the rushing leader for the Patriots with 9 attempts for 30 yds (3.3 yards per carry). Overall, they ran 61 plays which gave them a total of 305 yards. The New England Patriots ran the ball 20 different times and totaled 89 yds, which came out to an average of 4.5 yards per carry. In the running game, the Patriots gave up 174 yds on 29 attempts, which averages out to 6.0 yds per run allowed. New England allowed 21 completions on 25 tries for a total of 308 yds, and a completion percentage of 84.0%.

Regarding getting in the endzone, the New England Patriots held an average of 27.2 points per outing. As a team they had an average of 126.5 yards in the run game, which was 8th in the National Football League. The Patriots racked up 6,008 total yards for the previous season. New England compiled 187 1st downs as a team, and they committed 95 penalties for 854 yds. They turned the football over 23 times (13 interceptions and 10 fumbles). New England compiled 24 passing touchdowns and 24 rushing touchdowns.

When talking about passing yards, the Patriots gave up 3,181 yards which ranked them 2nd in football. Over the course of their 17 games played last season, they conceded 187.1 yards per contest via the pass as well as surrendering a completion percentage of 59.3%. They gave up 310.8 yards per game which ranked them 4th in the NFL. They surrendered 21 passing touchdowns in addition to 9 running touchdowns. The opposition ran for an average of 4.5 yards per tote and 123.7 rushing yards per game for the previous season. For the season, they gave up 2,103 running yards through 17 contests. The Patriots were sitting in 2nd in the NFL regarding team defense, conceding 17.8 points per contest.

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The Dolphins ended the season having a 9-8 record. When they last stepped on the field last year, the Dolphins went home victorious with a score of 33-24 when they faced the Patriots. Duke Johnson carried the football 25 times for 117 yds, finishing the game with 4.7 yds per carry for Miami. Jaylen Waddle was the best receiver for the Dolphins, grabbing 5 footballs for 27 yards (5.4 yds per reception). Tua Tagovailoa (1 TD) walked away from the game with 109 yards on 15/22 passing while his QB rating was 94.7. He kept the ball away from the defense with no picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 4.95 yards. Miami gave up 27 running attempts for 134 yds (5.0 yds per rush). The Dolphins secondary allowed a completion percentage of 66.7%, relinquishing 245 yards on 20 for 30 through the air. The Dolphins finished the contest with a total of 298 yds and they ran 66 plays (4.5 yds per play). Miami ran the ball for 4.5 yards per tote, finishing with 195 yds on 43 attempts.

The Miami Dolphins averaged 307.0 yards/outing ranking them 25th out of all teams in the NFL. They held an average of 92.2 yards per game via the rush and rushed for 1,568 yards for last season. The Miami offense had 825 yards of penalties on 105 infractions, which had them ranked 14th in the league in terms of making mistakes. They threw 14 picks while conceding 12 fumbles and they obtained 206 1st downs. Over the course of last year, the Dolphins compiled 3,651 yards through the air in addition to an average of 214.8 passing yards per game, ranking them 17th in the NFL. When it comes to their scoring prowess, the Dolphins were 22nd out of all teams in football with an average of 20.1 points per game.

Miami allowed a total of 1,867 rushing yards (109.8 yards/game) in addition to 16 touchdowns on the ground last season. They gave up 23 touchdowns from the passing game and 227.7 yards per outing, ranking them 16th in the league. Their defense earned 26 takeaways (12 fumbles and 14 picks) for the prior year. Last season, they conceded 373 points in total. The Dolphins defense was on the field for 1,081 plays, which had them ranked 19th in football. The Dolphins allowed 21.9 PPG, which had them in 16th of all teams in the league.

Who will win tonight's Patriots/Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Dolphins -3

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