Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots Prediction, 11/2/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 9

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

Total-Over-Under: 45

The New England Patriots (6-2) will try to defeat the Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Atlanta opens as 5.5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over-under is 45.

The Atlanta Falcons come into this game holding a record of 3-4 over the course of this year. When they last took the field, the Falcons took the field against the Miami Dolphins and went home with a loss by a final score of 34-10. Kirk Cousins connected on 21-31 with 173 yds passing. He had a QB rating of 81.8 and ended the contest without throwing a pick. Kyle Pitts left with an average of 6.6 yds per catch by accounting for 59 yards on 9 catches. Bijan Robinson was the best rusher for the Falcons with 9 carries for 25 yds (2.8 yds per attempt). When all was said and done, they ran 48 plays which totaled 213 yds. The Atlanta Falcons ran the ball 17 different times and totaled 45 yards, which came out to an average of 2.6 yds per attempt. In the running game, the Falcons gave up 141 yds on 37 attempts, which averages out to 3.8 yds per run allowed. Atlanta allowed 21 completions on 27 attempts for 197 yards, and a completion percentage of 77.8%.

The Falcons have notched 2,399 yards on the campaign. Atlanta has collected 76 1st downs as a unit, and they have been called for 41 infractions for 306 total yards. When examining notching touchdowns, Atlanta has collected 5 passing TD's and 7 ground TD's. They have coughed up the ball 7 times (3 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles). As a team, they are sitting at 123.3 rushing yards which ranks them at 11th in football. If you're looking at putting points on the board, the Atlanta Falcons average 17.1 points per contest.

When analyzing pass yards, the Falcons have yielded 1,044 total yards, giving them a rank of 1st in the NFL. They have yielded 149.1 yards per contest through the air, and are relinquishing a completion rate of 61.7%. All in all, they have given up 885 yards via the running game in 7 matchups for the season. They have relinquished 11 touchdowns via the pass, along with 4 touchdowns by way of the ground game. Altogether, they are granting 275.6 yds per outing, ranking them 2nd in the league. They are allowing 4.6 yards per running attempt and 126.4 running yds per game over the course of this year. The Falcons rank 13th in pro football if you're looking at the opposition scoring, allowing 22.0 points per contest.

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The Patriots step on the gridiron with a record of 6-2 on the year. In their last game, the Patriots took home the win by a final score of 32-13 when they faced the Cleveland Browns. Drake Maye (3 TDs) finished the game with 282 yards on 18-24 passing while his QB rating was 135.8. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 11.8 yds. Mack Hollins was one of the featured targets for the Patriots, grabbing 7 balls for 89 yards (12.7 yards per reception). TreVeyon Henderson carried the football 10 times for 75 yds, finishing the game with 7.5 yards per attempt for New England. The Patriots finished the game with a total of 422 yards while running 59 plays (7.2 yds per play). New England rushed the ball for 5.1 yds per carry, finishing the game with 177 yds on 35 carries. New England conceded 16 run attempts for 68 yds (4.3 yds per rush). The Patriots secondary conceded a completion rate of 60.0%, surrendering 145 yards on 21 out of 35 through the air.

The New England Patriots average 353.1 total yards per game, giving them a rank of 10th in the NFL. They hold an average of 112.6 rushing yds per outing, and have carried the ball for 901 yards. They have thrown 3 INTs while granting 6 lost fumbles, and have been able to earn 94 first downs as an offense. The New England offense has allowed 501 yards by way of 65 violations, which ranks them at 3rd in professional football if you analyze helping out the opposition. On the year, the Patriots have thrown for a total of 1,924 yards via the pass and hold an average of 240.5 yards via the pass per contest, putting them 9th in football. With reference to this team's ability to score points, the Patriots are sitting 8th in the league, scoring 26.6 points per contest.

The Patriots are relinquishing 18.3 PPG, ranking them 4th in the NFL. They have given up 12 touchdowns through the air as well as 224.4 passing yds per game, which has them ranking 19th in pro football. New England has surrendered a total of 608 rushing yards (76.0 yds per game), along with 3 touchdowns by way of the ground game on the campaign. The Patriots defense has participated in 443 plays from scrimmage, which has them ranking 10th in pro football. The D has accrued 11 takeaways (4 forced fumbles and 7 picks) on the season. On the whole, they have surrendered 146 points.

Who will win tonight's Falcons-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Patriots -5.5

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