Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, 12/11/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 15

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025

Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL

TV: Prime Video

Odds-Point Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

Raymond James Stadium is where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) will go up against the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) on Thursday. Atlanta is 4.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 44.5.

The Atlanta Falcons head into this game 4-9 this year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Falcons played the Seattle Seahawks and went home with a loss by a final score of 37-9. Bijan Robinson led the offense in rushing for the Falcons with 20 carries for 86 yds (4.3 yds per carry). Kyle Pitts averaged 15.0 yards per catch by notching 90 yds on 6 catches. Kirk Cousins finished 15-30 with 162 yards through the air. He had a quarterback rate of 38.5 and finished the contest with 2 picks. When it came to stopping the run, the Falcons conceded 129 yards on 26 tries, which is an average of 5.0 yards per rush allowed. Atlanta conceded 20 completions on 30 tries for 236 yards, and a completion rate of 66.7%. For the game, they had 61 plays which converted into 274 yards. The Atlanta Falcons ended up running the ball 31 times and totaled 120 yards, which had them averaging 3.9 yards per attempt.

When talking about scoring, the Falcons are averaging 19.4 points per outing. Offensively, they're sitting at 123.6 rushing yards which ranks them 12th in the NFL. The Falcons have tallied 4,290 total yards over the course of the season. Atlanta has earned 135 1st downs as a unit, and they have been hurt by 73 penalties for 590 yds. They have given the ball to the opposition 14 different times (6 interceptions and 8 fumbles). If you're looking at scoring points, Atlanta has a total of 12 touchdowns via the pass and 14 rushing TD's.

The Falcons are 20th in the NFL if you examine the other team scoring points, yielding 24.1 points per outing. The opposition is running for an average of 4.5 yards per run and 131.0 rushing yds per game on the campaign. In terms of passing yards, the Falcons have yielded 2,489 total yards, putting them 9th in professional football. They have allowed 191.5 yards per game through the air, and are granting a completion rate of 64.2%. On the whole, they are allowing 322.5 yards per contest, which ranks them 14th in the league. They have surrendered 21 touchdowns by way of the pass, plus 10 touchdowns by way of the ground game. Overall, they have surrendered 1,703 rushing yards through 13 games over the course of this year.

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The Buccaneers come into this matchup holding a record of 7-6 over the course of this year. When they last stepped on the football field, the Buccaneers went home defeated by a final of 24-20 against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield (1 TD) ended the contest with 122 yards on 14-30 passing while his quarterback rate was 55.1. He tossed 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 4.1 yards. Chris Godwin was one of the featured targets for the Buccaneers, catching 5 balls for 55 yds (11.0 yards per reception). Bucky Irving ran the ball 15 times for 55 yards, ending the contest with 3.7 yards per carry for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers finished the contest with a total of 301 yds while running 69 plays (4.4 yards per play). Tampa Bay ran the ball for 4.6 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 179 yards on 39 attempts. Tampa Bay gave up 32 attempts on the ground for 139 yds (4.3 yds per rush). The Buccaneers passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 65.0%, surrendering 121 yds on 13 out of 20 through the air.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers average 315.0 yds per game, which is good for 22nd in the league. They average 115.2 rushing yards per game, and have carried the football for 1,497 yds. They have compiled 6 INTs while granting 4 lost fumbles, and have been able to tally 123 1st downs as a unit. The Tampa Bay offense has surrendered 566 total yards on 72 infractions, putting them 28th in professional football when analyzing helping out the other team. In this season, the Buccaneers have thrown for 2,598 yards via the pass and average 199.8 yards via the pass per game, giving them a rank of 20th in the league. Concerning putting points on the board, the Buccaneers are ranked 18th in the league, with 23.0 PPG.

The Buccaneers are granting 25.0 points per outing, which ranks them 23rd in the NFL. They have relinquished 21 touchdowns through the air plus 237.8 pass yards per outing, which ranks them 27th in the NFL. Tampa Bay has allowed a total of 1,308 rushing yds (100.6 yards per outing), plus 15 touchdowns by way of the ground game on the season. The Buccaneers defense has participated in 778 plays from scrimmage, putting them 9th in professional football. The defense has earned 19 takeaways (7 fumbles forced and 12 INTs) this year. Overall, they have surrendered 325 points.

Who will win tonight's Falcons-Buccaneers NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Falcons +4.5

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