Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 9/28/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Chiefs (+2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 48.5

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is the location where the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) will try to beat the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) on Sunday. Baltimore opens this game as 2.5-point favorites. The betting total is set at 48.5.

The Baltimore Ravens step on the gridiron holding a record of 1-2 over the course of the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Ravens went up against the Detroit Lions and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 38-30. Derrick Henry was the rushing leader for the Ravens with 12 carries for 50 yards (4.2 yds per carry). Mark Andrews averaged 15.2 yards per reception by tallying 91 yds on 6 catches. Lamar Jackson went 21-27 with 288 yds through the air and 3 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 148.1 and finished the game with no interceptions. Against the rush, the Ravens conceded 224 yds on 38 tries, which is 5.9 yards per rush allowed. Baltimore gave up 20 pass completions on 28 attempts for 202 yds, and a completion percentage of 71.4%. At the end of the game, they tallied 47 plays which gave them a total of 318 yds. The Baltimore Ravens ran the football 19 different times and totaled 85 yds, which came out to an average of 4.5 yds per carry.

The Ravens have amassed 992 yards this year. Baltimore has attained 32 1st downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 16 penalties for 89 total yards. When examining getting in the endzone, Baltimore has attained 9 passing touchdowns and 4 running touchdowns. They have turned the ball over 2 different times. Collectively, they're averaging 122.7 rush yards which is good for 12th in professional football. When examining getting in the endzone, the AFC North representatives are sitting at 37.0 points per outing.

If you're looking at yards via the pass, the Ravens have conceded 798 yards, which is 31st in the league. They have allowed 266.0 total yards per contest through the air, and are conceding a completion percentage of 66.4%. Overall, they have surrendered 447 yards via the ground game in 3 outings over the course of this season. They have allowed 5 touchdowns through the air, and 7 touchdowns via the ground game. On the whole, they are giving up 415.0 yards per contest, which is 32nd in the league. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.9 yds per running attempt and 149.0 rushing yards per game over the course of this season. The Ravens are 31st in the league when you look at team defense, yielding 32.0 points per contest.

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The Chiefs head into this matchup 1-2 over the course of the season. The last time they took the field, the Chiefs took home the win by a final score of 22-9 when they played the New York Giants. Isiah Pacheco ran the ball 10 times for 45 yds, ending the game with 4.5 yds per attempt for Kansas City. Tyquan Thornton was featured in the passing game for the Chiefs, catching 5 footballs for 71 yds (14.2 yards per reception). Patrick Mahomes (1 TD) finished the game with 224 yds on 22-37 through the air while his QB rate was 85.9. He didn't toss any picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.1 yards. Kansas City relinquished 27 rushing attempts for 130 yds (4.8 yards per carry). The Chiefs passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 56.3%, surrendering 151 yards on 18 out of 32 through the air. The Chiefs finished the game with 306 yards while they ran 65 plays (4.7 yds per play). Kansas City ran the ball for 3.8 yds per carry, finishing with 105 yds on 28 attempts.

The Kansas City Chiefs average 315.7 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 17th in football. They maintain an average of 108.0 rushing yards per game, and have toted the ball for 324 total yards. They have a total of 1 interception while relinquishing 0 fumbles, and have obtained 29 1st downs. The Kansas City offense has surrendered 201 total yards on 24 violations, which has them sitting 13th in pro football when examining hurting your team. On the year, the Chiefs sit at 623 yards via the pass and average 207.7 yards via the pass per outing, which has them sitting 15th in the league. Regarding the points being put on the board, the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in pro football, by tallying 20.0 PPG.

They have conceded 3 touchdowns through the air plus 183.0 yards via the pass per contest, which is 10th in the league. Kansas City has conceded a total of 342 rush yards (114.0 total yards per contest), in addition to 3 touchdowns via the ground game for the season. The D has racked up 2 turnovers on the campaign. Overall, they have given up 56 points in total. The Chiefs defense has taken the field for 181 plays from the line of scrimmage, which ranks them 15th in football. The Chiefs are yielding 18.7 PPG, which ranks them at 11th in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Ravens-Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Chiefs +2.5

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