Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 10/13/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 6

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Monday, October 13, 2025

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Falcons (+4)

Total-Over-Under: 48.5

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) are headed to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday where they will play the Atlanta Falcons (2-2). Atlanta opens this matchup as 4-point dogs. The over-under has been set at 48.5.

The Buffalo Bills step on the gridiron 4-1 for the year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bills played the New England Patriots and ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Josh Allen went 22-31 with 253 yds through the air and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 103.3 and finished the game with 1 pick. James Cook led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 15 totes for 49 yards (3.3 yds per carry). Dalton Kincaid had an average of 18.0 yds per reception by accumulating 108 yards on 6 catches. The Buffalo Bills ran the ball a total of 29 different times and totaled 118 yds, which is an average of 4.1 yards per attempt. For the game, they had 60 plays which gave them 363 yds. Buffalo gave up 22 completions on 30 attempts for a total of 267 yds, and a completion percentage of 73.3%. Against the run, the Bills gave up 71 yds on 22 tries, which averages out to 3.2 yds per rush allowed.

The Bills have a total of 1,979 total yards for the year. Buffalo currently has 65 first downs, and they have been called for 36 penalties for 287 yds. If you're looking at putting points on the board, Buffalo has produced 9 passing touchdowns and 9 ground TD's. They have turned the football over 4 times (2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles). Offensively, they're averaging 154.4 running yds which has them sitting 2nd in professional football. If you analyze getting the ball into the endzone, the team residing in Buffalo are averaging 30.6 points per contest.

The Bills currently rank 18th in football when talking about their opponents scoring, allowing 22.6 PPG. They are allowing 5.6 yards per rush on the ground and 145.6 rushing yds per outing this season. With reference to pass yards, the Bills have conceded 770 yds, which is 2nd in football. They have granted 154.0 yds per outing through the air, and are surrendering a completion percentage of 64.7%. In total, they are yielding 299.6 total yards per contest, which has them sitting 9th in professional football. They have yielded 6 touchdowns by way of the pass, plus 7 touchdowns via the ground game. Altogether, they have conceded 728 rushing yards through 5 games for the year.

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The Falcons come into this matchup holding a record of 2-2 for the year. In their last game, the Falcons took home the win by a final score of 34-27 against the Washington Commanders. Bijan Robinson ran the football 17 times for 75 yards, ending the contest with 4.4 yds per attempt for Atlanta. Drake London was the best receiver for the Falcons, bringing in 8 footballs for 110 yards (13.8 yards per reception). Michael Penix (2 TDs) ended the game with 313 yards on 20-26 through the air while his quarterback rating was 126. He tossed 1 interception and his avg yards per attempt was 12.0 yds. Atlanta surrendered 22 attempts on the ground for 147 yards (6.7 yds per rush). The Falcons secondary gave up a completion percentage of 59.3%, surrendering 147 yards on 16 for 27 passing. The Falcons finished the game with a total of 435 yds while they ran 63 plays (6.9 yards per play). Atlanta rushed the football for 3.5 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 128 yds on 37 attempts.

Regarding their ability to score points, the Falcons currently sit 26th in football, holding an average of 19.0 points per contest. On the campaign, the Falcons have a total of 905 yards through the air and are averaging 226.3 yards through the air per outing, ranking them 13th in the NFL. They hold an average of 136.5 rushing yds per outing, and have run for 546 total yards. The Atlanta Falcons hold an average of 362.8 yards per game, which is 7th in professional football. The Atlanta offense has yielded 152 total yards on 21 penalties, which has them sitting 31st in professional football when talking about hurting your team. They have tossed 3 picks while giving up 2 fumbles, and have been able to tally 46 first downs offensively.

They have given up 5 touchdowns via the pass plus 135.0 yards through the air per outing, ranking them 1st in the NFL. Atlanta has relinquished a total of 436 rush yds (109.0 total yards per outing), as well as 2 touchdowns via the rush for the year. The defense has recorded 6 turnovers (3 fumbles forced and 3 interceptions) so far this season. Overall, they have relinquished 86 pts. The Falcons defense has been on the field for 208 plays from scrimmage, which is 1st in professional football. The Falcons are conceding 21.5 points per contest, ranking them 15th in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Falcons +4

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