Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction, 11/20/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 12

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025

Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: Prime Video

Odds-Point Spread: Texans (+5.5)

Total-Over-Under: 43.5

The Houston Texans (5-5) will play the Buffalo Bills (7-3) at NRG Stadium on Thursday. Buffalo is 5.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 43.5.

The Buffalo Bills step on the gridiron holding a record of 7-3 this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bills played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and earned the victory with a final of 44-32. Josh Allen finished 19-30 with 317 yds passing and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 104.4 and finished the contest with 2 picks. Tyrell Shavers held an average of 22.5 yds per reception by accumulating 90 yards on 4 catches. James Cook led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 16 carries for 48 yards (3.0 yards per attempt). In all, they tallied 53 plays which totaled 414 yards. The Buffalo Bills rushed the ball a total of 23 times and recorded 97 yds, which had them averaging 4.2 yds per attempt. In the running game, the Bills conceded 202 yards on 39 tries, which calculates to 5.2 yards per run allowed. Buffalo gave up 16 completions on 28 tries for 165 yards, and a completion rate of 57.1%.

The Bills have collected 3,874 yards for this campaign. Buffalo has recorded 121 first downs as an offense, and they have been called for 68 penalties for 563 total yards. When talking about scoring touchdowns, Buffalo has compiled 18 touchdowns through the air and 19 ground TD's. They have given the ball away 12 different times (7 picks and 5 fumbles lost). Collectively, they maintain an average of 147.6 rushing yds ranking them 1st in the league. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, the AFC representatives hold an average of 29.2 points per outing.

The Bills are ranked 14th in the league if you're looking at their opponents scoring, relinquishing 22.9 points per game. They are allowing an average of 5.4 yds per running attempt and 153.0 rush yards per game so far this season. Regarding passing yds, the Bills have relinquished 1,697 total yards, putting them 2nd in pro football. They have conceded 169.7 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion% of 61.8%. On the whole, they are allowing 322.7 total yards per game, putting them 12th in pro football. They have allowed 10 touchdowns via the pass, as well as 17 touchdowns on the ground. On the whole, they have allowed 1,530 running yards through 10 outings so far this year.

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The Texans step on the gridiron with a record of 5-5 for the year. In their last game, the Texans took home the win by a final score of 16-13 against the Tennessee Titans. Woody Marks ran the ball 18 times for 44 yards, finishing the contest with 2.4 yds per attempt for Houston. Nico Collins was a featured target for the Texans, catching 9 throws for 92 yds (10.2 yards per catch). Davis Mills (1 touchdown) finished the game with 274 yards on 26-41 passing while his QB rating was 90.9. He didn't toss any interceptions and his Y-A was 6.7 yards. Houston relinquished 17 run attempts for 58 yards (3.4 yds per carry). The Texans secondary gave up a completion percentage of 64.9%, surrendering 171 yards on 24 out of 37 passing. The Texans finished the game with a total of 315 yds while they ran 64 plays (4.9 yds per play). Houston rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 75 yds on 23 attempts.

The Houston Texans have an average of 329.6 yds per contest, which has them sitting 19th in football. They have an average of 107.6 rushing yds per contest, and have carried the ball for 1,076 yds. They have compiled 6 INTs while giving up 3 lost fumbles, and have been able to tally 116 1st downs as a team. The Houston offense has granted 589 yds by way of 72 infractions, ranking this team at 12th in the league with reference to making mistakes. On the year, the Texans have thrown for a total of 2,220 yards via the pass and are averaging 222.0 yards via the pass per outing, ranking this team at 16th in the league. When examining their scoring prowess, the Texans currently rank 21st in pro football, scoring 22.0 points per contest.

The Texans are yielding 16.3 points per contest, ranking this team at 1st in pro football. They have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air as well as 171.0 yards via the pass per game, which has them ranking 3rd in football. Houston has allowed a total of 871 rush yds (87.1 yds per game), as well as 8 touchdowns on the ground over the course of this year. The Texans defense has taken part in 565 plays, putting them 2nd in pro football. The D has compiled 16 turnovers (6 forced fumbles and 10 INTs) so far this year. On the whole, they have granted 163 pts.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Texans NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bills -5.5

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