Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots Prediction, 9/28/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

Total-Over-Under: 43.5

The New England Patriots (1-2) are hosting the Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. New England opens this matchup as 5.5-point favorites. The betting total is set at 43.5.

The Carolina Panthers step onto the field holding a record of 1-2 on the year. In their last contest, the Panthers played the Atlanta Falcons and notched a win by a score of 30-0. Bryce Young went 16-24 with 121 yds passing. He had a QB rating of 78.6 and ended the contest without throwing a pick. Chuba Hubbard was the rushing leader for the Panthers with 17 attempts for 73 yds (4.3 yds per carry). Tetairoa McMillan averaged 16.0 yds per reception by earning 48 yards on 3 catches. The Carolina Panthers ended up rushing 30 different times and amassed 110 yds, which came out to an average of 3.7 yds per carry. When all was said and done, they had 54 plays which gave them 224 yards. Carolina gave up 23 pass completions on 43 tries for 201 yards, and a completion percentage of 53.5%. When it came to the battle of the line of scrimmage, the Panthers conceded 131 yards on 23 attempts, which is 5.7 yards per rush surrendered.

The Panthers have collected 831 total yards over the course of the season. Carolina has a total of 34 first downs as a team, and they have been flagged for 17 penalties for 173 total yards. When examining getting in the endzone, Carolina has attained 4 passing TD's and 2 touchdowns via the run. They have surrendered the football 6 different times (3 INTs and 3 fumbles). Collectively, they're maintaining an average of 90.7 rushing yards which is 25th in the league. Regarding getting the ball in the endzone, the squad residing in Carolina hold an average of 20.7 PPG.

The Panthers currently sit 8th in the NFL if you look at the other team scoring points, relinquishing 17.7 points per outing. They are allowing 5.4 yards per run and 137.7 rush yards per contest for the season. If you analyze pass yds, the Panthers have surrendered 590 yards, which ranks them 12th in the league. They have allowed 196.7 total yards per contest through the air, and are giving up a completion percentage of 59.6%. In total, they are surrendering 334.3 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 21st in football. They have surrendered 2 touchdowns by way of the pass, plus 2 touchdowns via the ground game. On the whole, they have conceded 413 running yards through 3 outings over the course of this year.

Get all of our NFL Picks Today

The Patriots head into this matchup 1-2 on the year. When they last took the field, the Patriots took a defeat with a final score of 21-14 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Drake Maye (2 TDs) finished the game with 268 yds on 28-37 through the air while his QB rating was 102.1. He had 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.2 yards. Hunter Henry was the top contributor in the passing game for the Patriots, catching 8 balls for 90 yards (11.3 yards per catch). Drake Maye ran the football 7 times for 45 yds, ending the game with 6.4 yds per carry for New England. The Patriots finished the contest with 369 yards while running 66 plays (5.6 yards per play). New England rushed the ball for 4.1 yds per attempt, finishing with 119 yards on 29 attempts. New England gave up 26 running attempts for 64 yards (2.5 yds per carry). The Patriots secondary conceded a completion rate of 69.6%, relinquishing 139 yds on 16 out of 23 through the air.

Regarding the points being put on the board, the Patriots are ranked 21st in pro football, by tallying 20.0 PPG. This year, the Patriots sit at 737 passing yds and are sitting at 245.7 passing yds per game, which ranks them 7th in football. They average 100.3 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 301 total yards. The New England Patriots maintain an average of 346.0 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 11th in the NFL. The New England offense has surrendered 199 yds by way of 27 penalties, putting them 5th in the NFL if you look at helping out the opposition. They have recorded 2 picks while giving up 4 lost fumbles, and have tallied 37 1st downs.

The Patriots are yielding 22.7 points per contest, which is good for 19th in professional football. They have allowed 5 touchdowns through the air and 256.3 yards via the pass per contest, which ranks them at 29th in football. New England has conceded a total of 181 rushing yds (60.3 yards per game), plus 2 touchdowns via the ground game this year. The Patriots defense has participated in 163 plays from scrimmage, which ranks them 4th in the league. Their defense has accrued 3 takeaways so far this season. On the whole, they have surrendered 68 points.

Who will win tonight's Panthers-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Patriots -5.5

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here