Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Prediction, 12/25/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 16

Game: Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025

Location: Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD

TV: Netflix

Odds-Point Spread: Commanders (+7)

Total-Over-Under: 50.5

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8) are on their way to Northwest Stadium on Thursday where they will try to beat the Washington Commanders (4-11). Washington opens this contest as 7-point underdogs. The betting total is set at 50.5.

The Dallas Cowboys head into this matchup 6-8 over the course of this year. In their last contest, the Cowboys played the Los Angeles Chargers and ended up losing by a score of 34-17. Javonte Williams was the best rusher for the Cowboys with 9 carries for 34 yds (3.8 yards per carry). George Pickens had an average of 18.6 yards per reception by accumulating 130 yards on 7 catches. Dak Prescott went 21-30 with 244 yds passing and 2 TDs. He had a QB rate of 116.5 and ended the game with no picks. Against the run, the Cowboys gave up 152 yards on 33 attempts, which averages out to 4.6 yds per run surrendered. Dallas surrendered 23 completions on 29 tries for 300 yds, and a completion percentage of 79.3%. In the game, they tallied 55 plays for 340 yds. The Dallas Cowboys ran the football 23 different times and had 91 yards, which had them averaging 4.0 yds per attempt.

The Cowboys have a total of 5,897 yards over the course of this year. Dallas has racked up 208 first downs as a unit, and they have been hurt by 113 infractions for 953 yards. With reference to scoring points, Dallas has earned 29 touchdowns through the air and 15 ground TD's. They have given the ball to the opposition 19 different times (11 interceptions and 8 lost fumbles). As a team, they're maintaining an average of 118.8 rush yds which has them ranking 17th in professional football. When examining scoring, the NFC East representatives have an average of 28.3 points per outing.

The Cowboys rank 31st in the league when you look at the opposition scoring, surrendering 30.3 PPG. They are giving up 4.5 yds per rushing attempt and 122.3 rush yds per outing on the campaign. With reference to passing yards, the Cowboys have surrendered 3,867 yards, which is good for 32nd in the NFL. They have given up 257.8 yards per game through the air, and are conceding a completion rate of 68.8%. Overall, they are conceding 380.1 yards per contest, which is good for 30th in the NFL. They have allowed 33 touchdowns by way of the pass, as well as 21 touchdowns by way of the ground game. Overall, they have allowed 1,834 yards on the ground through 15 contests this season.

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The Commanders come into this matchup holding a record of 4-11 this season. The last time they took the field, the Commanders went home defeated by a final of 29-18 when they faced the Philadelphia Eagles. Chris Rodriguez carried the ball 15 times for 63 yards, ending the contest with 4.2 yards per carry for Washington. Terry McLaurin was a featured target for the Commanders, snagging 3 balls for 53 yards (17.7 yards per reception). Marcus Mariota finished the game with 95 yards on 7-14 passing while his QB rating was 72. He didn't throw any interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 6.8 yds. Washington conceded 34 attempts on the ground for 207 yds (6.1 yards per rush). The Commanders passing defense gave up a completion rate of 73.3%, surrendering 178 yards on 22 for 30 through the air. The Commanders finished the game with a total of 220 yards while running 49 plays (4.5 yds per play). Washington ran for 3.5 yds per carry, finishing the contest with 90 yards on 26 attempts.

The Washington Commanders average 321.1 yards per contest, which ranks 20th in pro football. They average 133.9 rushing yds per game, and have rushed for 2,009 yds. They have allowed 11 picks while allowing 10 fumbles lost, and have been able to earn 140 1st downs as an offense. The Washington offense has conceded 823 yds by way of 103 infractions, which has them sitting 13th in the league regarding helping out the opposition. On the year, the Commanders have earned 2,808 pass yards and hold an average of 187.2 pass yards per outing, which has them sitting 24th in the league. Concerning putting points on the board, the Commanders currently sit 24th in pro football, averaging 20.6 points per contest.

The Commanders are allowing 26.9 points per game, which has them ranking 27th in professional football. They have given up 30 touchdowns through the air plus 241.7 yards through the air per game, which has them sitting 26th in football. Washington has yielded a total of 2,120 rushing yds (141.3 yards per contest), along with 16 touchdowns to rushers on the campaign. The Commanders defense has been on the field for 937 plays from the line of scrimmage, which has them ranked 19th in the league. Their defense has amassed 9 turnovers (2 forced fumbles and 7 picks) this season. Overall, they have surrendered 404 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Cowboys-Commanders NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Cowboys -7

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