Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 12/7/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 14

Game: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: NBC

Odds-Point Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 42

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) are hosting the Houston Texans (7-5) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Houston opens this matchup as 3.5-point dogs. The total has been set at 42.

The Houston Texans head into this game 7-5 for the season. In their last contest, the Texans took on the Indianapolis Colts and earned the victory with a final of 20-16. C.J. Stroud connected on 22-35 with 276 yards through the air. He had a quarterback rating of 75.4 and finished the game with 1 interception. Nico Collins had an average of 19.6 yards per catch by totaling 98 yds on 5 catches. Woody Marks was the rushing leader for the Texans with 19 carries for 64 yds (3.4 yds per attempt). In the game, they ran 69 plays which gave them a total of 364 yds. The Houston Texans ran the ball 34 different times and amassed 108 yards, which came out to an average of 3.2 yds per attempt. Against the run, the Texans conceded 86 yards on 23 attempts, which averages out to 3.7 yds per rush surrendered. Houston gave up 14 completions on 27 tries for 195 yards, and a completion rate of 51.9%.

Concerning getting the ball in the endzone, the AFC South members are averaging 21.9 PPG. Offensively, they are averaging 107.7 rush yds which is good for 23rd in pro football. The Texans have compiled 3,921 yds over the course of this year. Houston has notched 137 first downs as a unit, and they have been called for 86 penalties for 714 yds. They have coughed up the ball 10 different times (7 picks and 3 lost fumbles). If you're looking at putting points on the board, Houston has notched 16 passing TD's and 7 touchdowns via the ground.

The Texans are ranked 1st in pro football concerning their defensive prowess, granting 16.5 points per game. They are allowing 4.0 yds per tote and 91.7 rushing yards per game for the season. When you look at passing yards, the Texans have surrendered 2,088 total yards, ranking this team at 4th in pro football. They have surrendered 174.0 yards per outing by way of the pass, and are conceding a completion% of 58.4%. All in all, they are giving up 265.7 yds per contest, which is good for 1st in pro football. They have allowed 12 touchdowns via the pass, and 9 touchdowns on the ground. In total, they have surrendered 1,100 rushing yards through 12 outings over the course of this season.

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The Chiefs head into this matchup 6-6 for the season. When they last took the field, the Chiefs took a loss by a final score of 31-28 against the Dallas Cowboys. Patrick Mahomes (4 TDs) ended the game with 261 yards on 23-34 through the air while his QB rating was 129.7. He didn't toss any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 7.7 yds. Kareem Hunt carried the football 14 times for 58 yds, finishing the game with 4.1 yds per carry for Kansas City. Rashee Rice was one of the featured targets for the Chiefs, snagging 8 footballs for 92 yards (11.5 yds per catch). Kansas City rushed the ball for 5.2 yds per carry, finishing with a total of 119 yds on 23 attempts. The Chiefs finished the game with a total of 362 yards while running 57 plays (6.4 yards per play). The Chiefs passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 69.2%, surrendering 320 yds on 27 for 39 through the air. Kansas City conceded 26 run attempts for 137 yards (5.3 yards per carry).

When you look at their scoring prowess, the Chiefs are ranked 9th in pro football, scoring 25.4 points per contest. In this season, the Chiefs have earned 3,078 passing yds and average 256.5 passing yds per outing, which has them ranking 2nd in the NFL. They hold an average of 118.3 rush yds per outing, and have carried the football for 1,420 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs maintain an average of 374.8 total yards per game, which has them ranked 5th in pro football. The Kansas City offense has conceded 753 yds on 86 violations, which is 10th in the NFL with reference to making mistakes. They have compiled 7 INTs while surrendering 1 fumble, and have tallied 157 first downs as a team.

They have surrendered 13 touchdowns by way of the pass and 205.8 passing yards per contest, ranking this team at 12th in pro football. Kansas City has relinquished a total of 1,211 rushing yards (100.9 yards per game), and 11 touchdowns on the ground for the season. Their defense has compiled 10 turnovers (3 fumbles forced and 7 picks) so far this year. Overall, they have allowed 232 points. The Chiefs defense has taken the field for 663 plays from the line of scrimmage, which is good for 1st in pro football. The Chiefs are giving up 19.3 PPG, which is good for 7th in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Texans-Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Texans +3.5

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