Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction, 11/16/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 11

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025

Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Broncos (+3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

The Denver Broncos (8-2) will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. Denver opens this matchup as 3.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is 44.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs step onto the field holding a record of 5-4 on the year. In their last game, the Chiefs stepped onto the field against the Buffalo Bills and took a loss by a score of 28-21. Kareem Hunt was the rushing leader for the Chiefs with 11 carries for 49 yards (4.5 yds per attempt). Rashee Rice had an average of 20.0 yds per catch by accumulating 80 yds on 4 catches. Patrick Mahomes connected on 15-34 with 250 yards through the air. He had a QB rating of 57.2 and finished the game with 1 interception. In the running game, the Chiefs conceded 141 yds on 35 tries, which averages out to 4.0 yds per rush surrendered. Kansas City surrendered 23 completions on 26 tries for a total of 263 yards, and a completion percentage of 88.5%. For the game, they ran 54 plays which gave them a total of 305 yds. The Kansas City Chiefs ran the rock 20 times and totaled 79 yds, which came out to an average of 4.0 yards per carry.

If you analyze putting points on the board, the AFC representatives average 26.1 points per contest. As a team, they are averaging 121.2 running yards which ranks them at 12th in football. The Chiefs have recorded 3,331 total yards over the course of the season. Kansas City has amassed 117 first downs, and they have committed 59 infractions for 508 yards. They have coughed up the ball 5 times (5 picks and 0 fumbles). When you look at getting in the endzone, Kansas City has amassed 17 passing TD's and 11 rushing TD's.

If you analyze pass yards, the Chiefs have allowed 1,685 total yards, which ranks them at 5th in football. They have allowed 187.2 total yards per game by way of the pass, and are relinquishing a completion percentage of 71.5%. All in all, they have allowed 941 rushing yards through 9 games for the year. They have allowed 9 touchdowns by way of the pass, along with 9 touchdowns to runners. All in all, they are giving up 291.8 yds per contest, which is good for 6th in football. The opposition is running for an average of 4.3 yds per tote and 104.6 running yds per outing on the year. The Chiefs sit 4th in the league with reference to their defensive abilities, allowing 17.7 points per game.

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The Broncos head into this matchup 8-2 on the year. In their last game, the Broncos got the victory with a final of 10-7 when they faced the Las Vegas Raiders. J.K. Dobbins carried the ball 18 times for 77 yds, finishing the game with 4.3 yds per carry for Denver. Pat Bryant was featured in the passing game for the Broncos, catching 1 balls for 43 yards (43.0 yds per catch). Bo Nix (1 TD) walked away from the contest with 150 yds on 16-28 through the air while his QB rate was 54.2. He had 2 interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.4 yds. Denver relinquished 25 run attempts for 74 yds (3.0 yds per carry). The Broncos pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 59.3%, surrendering 114 yds on 16 out of 27 passing. The Broncos finished the contest with a total of 220 yards while they ran 55 plays (4.0 yards per play). Denver rushed for 3.1 yds per carry, finishing the game with 84 yds on 27 carries.

The Denver Broncos have an average of 334.6 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 13th in the NFL. They maintain an average of 128.6 running yds per outing, and have run for 1,286 yards. They have thrown 8 picks while giving up 4 lost fumbles, and have been able to tally 107 1st downs as an offense. The Denver offense has allowed 736 yards on 83 violations, which has them sitting 1st in football when examining giving up free yards. Over the course of this season, the Broncos sit at 2,060 passing yds and average 206.0 passing yds per outing, which ranks them at 18th in the league. When talking about their scoring prowess, the Broncos currently sit 17th in professional football, scoring 23.5 points per game.

The Broncos are surrendering 17.3 points per game, ranking them 3rd in professional football. They have allowed 8 touchdowns by way of the pass along with 179.5 passing yds per game, which has them ranking 6th in the league. Denver has allowed a total of 912 rushing yards (91.2 yards per contest), along with 7 touchdowns on the ground over the course of this season. The Broncos defense has taken the field for 624 plays, which is good for 30th in football. The D has notched 8 turnovers (3 forced fumbles and 5 INTs) over the course of the season. All in all, they have yielded 173 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs-Broncos NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Chiefs -3.5

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