Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, 9/5/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Date: Friday, September 5, 2025

Location: Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil

TV: YouTube

Odds-Point Spread: Chargers (+3)

Total-Over-Under: 45.5

The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 last season) are hitting the road to Corinthians Arena on Friday where they will go up against the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6 last year). Kansas City opens this matchup as 3-point favorites. The total is set at 45.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs wrapped up their year holding a 15-2 record. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Chiefs played the Philadelphia Eagles and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 40-22. Patrick Mahomes was the leader on the ground for the Chiefs with 4 totes for 25 yards (6.3 yds per carry). Xavier Worthy had an average of 19.6 yards per catch by recording 157 yds on 8 receptions. Patrick Mahomes went 21-32 with 257 yards through the air and 3 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 95.4 and ended the contest with 2 interceptions. Against the run, the Chiefs conceded 135 yds on 45 tries, which is an average of 3.0 yards per rush allowed. Kansas City surrendered 17 completions on 23 tries for 210 yards, and a completion percentage of 73.9%. In all, they ran 43 plays which gave them a total of 275 yds. The Kansas City Chiefs ended up rushing 11 times and recorded 49 yards, which had them averaging 4.5 yds per carry.

If you examine scoring touchdowns, the AFC members had an average of 22.6 points per contest. As a team, they had an average of 105.3 rushing yds, putting them 22nd in football. The Chiefs collected 5,570 total yards last season. Kansas City produced 219 1st downs as a team, and they were flagged for 94 penalties for 829 yards. They gave the ball away 14 different times (11 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost). Kansas City accrued 26 passing TD's and 15 touchdowns on the ground.

The Chiefs ranked 4th in the NFL if you examine the other team scoring points, relinquishing 19.2 points per game. They gave up an average of 4.1 yds per rushing attempt and 101.8 rushing yds per game in the previous season. Altogether, they relinquished 1,731 yards via the running game in 17 matchups in the previous season. If you examine yards via the pass, the Chiefs surrendered 3,720 yards which ranked 18th in professional football. They surrendered 218.8 total yards per outing through the air, and allowed a completion percentage 65.9%. All in all, they allowed 320.6 per contest, which had them sitting 9th in pro football. They surrendered 24 passing TD's, along with 13 via the rush.

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The Chargers concluded the year having accumulated a 11-6 mark. In their last contest, the Chargers went home defeated by a final of 32-12 against the Houston Texans. J.K. Dobbins carried the ball 9 times for 26 yards, finishing the contest with 2.9 yds per attempt for Los Angeles. Ladd McConkey was a featured target for the Chargers, hauling in 9 footballs for 197 yards (21.9 yds per catch). Justin Herbert (1 TD) finished the contest with 242 yards on 14-32 through the air while his quarterback rating was 40.9. He had 4 interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 7.6 yds. Los Angeles conceded 34 run attempts for 168 yards (4.9 yards per rush). The Chargers pass defense conceded a completion rate of 66.7%, relinquishing 261 yds on 22 out of 33 passing. The Chargers finished the game with 261 yards while they ran 50 plays (5.2 yards per play). Los Angeles rushed for 2.8 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 50 yds on 18 attempts.

Regarding the points being put on the board, the Chargers ranked 11th in the NFL, with 23.6 points per game. In the prior season, the Chargers sat at 3,629 pass yds and averaged 213.5 pass yds per contest, putting them 19th in football. They had an average of 110.7 rushing yds per contest, and ran for 1,882 yds. The Los Angeles Chargers averaged 324.2 yards per contest, which had them ranking 20th in football. The Los Angeles offense allowed 718 total yards on 96 violations, which was 27th in professional football concerning making mistakes.

The Chargers relinquished 17.7 points per game, which had them ranking 1st in football. They allowed 24 touchdowns via the pass along with 206.9 passing yds per contest, which ranked them 7th in professional football. Los Angeles conceded a total of 1,997 rushing yds (117.5 yds per contest), along with 7 touchdowns to runners for the previous season. The Chargers defense was on the field for 1,037 plays from the line of scrimmage, which had them ranking 11th in professional football. The D had a total of 21 turnovers (6 forced fumbles and 15 INTs) for the previous season.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs-Chargers NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chargers +3

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