Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 9/18/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 3

Game: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Thursday, September 18, 2025

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: Prime Video

Odds-Point Spread: Bills (-12.5)

Total-Over-Under: 49.5

The Buffalo Bills (2-0) welcome the Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Highmark Stadium on Thursday. Miami opens this matchup as 12.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is 49.5.

The Miami Dolphins head into this game 0-2 for the season. In their last game, the Dolphins faced off with the New England Patriots and took a loss by a score of 33-27. Tua Tagovailoa connected on 26-32 with 315 yds passing and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 115.5 and finished the game with 1 interception. Tyreek Hill left with an average of 18.2 yards per reception by earning 109 yards on 6 catches. De'Von Achane led the offense in rushing for the Dolphins with 11 attempts for 30 yds (2.7 yards per attempt). Once the final whistle blew, they had 47 plays which gave them 358 yds. The Miami Dolphins rushed the ball a total of 15 different times and accounted for 61 yards, which is an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Against the rush, the Dolphins gave up 122 yds on 29 attempts, which averages out to 4.2 yds per run allowed. Miami gave up 19 pass completions on 23 tries for a total of 211 yds, and a completion percentage of 82.6%.

The Dolphins have racked up 569 total yards this season. Miami currently has 24 first downs as a team, and they have been called for 13 penalties for 80 yds. When you look at notching touchdowns, Miami has notched 3 touchdowns via the pass and 0 rushing touchdowns. They have coughed up the ball 4 different times (3 interceptions and 1 fumble). As a unit, they're holding an average of 69.5 running yds which has them ranked 29th in the NFL. If you examine scoring, the Dolphins have an average of 17.5 points per outing.

The Dolphins currently sit 31st in football when you look at the other team scoring points, conceding 33.0 PPG. They are allowing 4.0 yards per rushing attempt and 139.0 rush yards per contest for the season. If you analyze yards via the pass, the Dolphins have surrendered 473 yards, ranking them 24th in football. They have relinquished 236.5 yards per game by way of the pass, and are yielding a completion% of 78.8%. On the whole, they are yielding 375.5 total yards per outing, ranking this team at 26th in the NFL. They have conceded 3 touchdowns by way of the pass, and 3 touchdowns to rushers. In total, they have allowed 278 running yards through 2 contests for the season.

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The Bills step on the gridiron with a record of 2-0 so far this season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Bills walked away with a victory by a final of 30-10 when they played the New York Jets. James Cook carried the football 21 times for 132 yds, finishing the game with 6.3 yds per attempt for Buffalo. Josh Palmer had the best day in terms of receiving for the Bills, hauling in 2 balls for 47 yds (23.5 yards per reception). Josh Allen ended the game with 148 yds on 14-25 passing while his QB rating was 73.4. He didn't toss any interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 5.9 yards. Buffalo relinquished 21 running attempts for 100 yards (4.8 yards per carry). The Bills pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 45.5%, surrendering 54 yards on 10 for 22 through the air. The Bills finished the contest with 403 yards while they ran 70 plays (5.8 yards per play). Buffalo rushed for 5.2 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 224 yards on 43 carries.

Regarding how much they score, the Bills currently sit 2nd in the NFL, with 35.5 points per contest. In this campaign, the Bills have racked up 568 yards via the pass and have an average of 284.0 yards via the pass per game, ranking them 2nd in football. They have an average of 166.0 rushing yds per contest, and have toted the ball for 332 yards. The Buffalo Bills hold an average of 450.0 yds per game, which is good for 1st in professional football. The Buffalo offense has relinquished 107 total yards on 11 infractions, which has them ranked 26th in the NFL when examining making mistakes. They have obtained 27 first downs as a unit.

The Bills are giving up 25.0 points per game, ranking them 22nd in the league. They have yielded 3 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 124.0 pass yards per contest, which is 1st in professional football. Buffalo has relinquished a total of 338 rushing yds (169.0 yards per game), in addition to 3 touchdowns via the ground game so far this season. The Bills defense has participated in 97 plays, putting them 1st in pro football. The defense has attained 2 takeaways. Altogether, they have relinquished 50 total points.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins-Bills NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Dolphins +12.5

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