New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 10/5/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: NBC

Odds-Point Spread: Bills (-7.5)

Total-Over-Under: 49.5

The New England Patriots (2-2) are headed to Highmark Stadium on Sunday where they will compete against the Buffalo Bills (4-0). Buffalo is 7.5-point favorites. The total has been set at 49.5.

The New England Patriots head into this matchup 2-2 for the season. In their last contest, the Patriots played the Carolina Panthers and went home with a win by a final score of 42-13. Rhamondre Stevenson was the best rusher for the Patriots with 9 attempts for 38 yards (4.2 yds per carry). Stefon Diggs had an average of 16.8 yards per catch by earning 101 yds on 6 receptions. Drake Maye finished 14-17 with 203 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 155.6 and ended the contest without throwing an interception. Against the run, the Patriots gave up 129 yds on 28 tries, which averages out to 4.6 yds per rush surrendered. New England relinquished 23 pass completions on 36 tries for a total of 197 yards, and a completion percentage of 63.9%. In all, they tallied 47 plays which converted into 307 yds. The New England Patriots ran the rock 29 different times and accumulated 104 yards, which came out to an average of 3.6 yds per carry.

Concerning scoring, the AFC East representatives hold an average of 25.5 points per outing. Offensively, they're sitting at 101.3 rushing yards putting them 25th in football. The Patriots have notched 1,345 total yards for the year. New England has tallied 45 first downs as a team, and they have been hurt by 34 infractions for 253 total yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 6 different times (2 INTs and 4 fumbles). If you're looking at scoring points, New England has amassed 7 touchdowns through the air and 4 rushing touchdowns.

When analyzing pass yards, the Patriots have given up 966 yds, which has them ranked 26th in the NFL. They have allowed 241.5 total yards per game via the pass, and are yielding a completion percentage of 71.2%. Overall, they have allowed 310 rushing yards through 4 games for the season. They have allowed 7 touchdowns by way of the pass, as well as 2 touchdowns via the rush. Overall, they are relinquishing 319.0 yds per contest, which has them ranked 16th in the NFL. The opposition is running for 3.3 yds per running attempt and 77.5 rushing yds per game on the season. The Patriots rank 11th in football with reference to their defensive prowess, granting 20.3 PPG.

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The Bills come into this matchup holding a record of 4-0 on the season. When they last took the field, the Bills took home the win by a final score of 31-19 against the New Orleans Saints. Josh Allen (2 touchdowns) ended the contest with 209 yards on 16-22 through the air while his quarterback rate was 113.6. He tossed 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 9.5 yards. Khalil Shakir was the top contributor in the passing game for the Bills, bringing in 5 balls for 69 yds (13.8 yds per catch). James Cook carried the ball 22 times for 117 yds, walking away from the contest with 5.3 yards per carry for Buffalo. The Bills finished the game with 356 yards and they ran 54 plays (6.6 yards per play). Buffalo ran for 5.2 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 165 yards on 32 attempts. Buffalo gave up 34 running attempts for 189 yds (5.6 yards per rush). The Bills passing defense conceded a completion percentage of 64.3%, relinquishing 109 yds on 18 for 28 passing.

The Buffalo Bills average 404.0 yds per contest, which has them ranked 2nd in the NFL. They maintain an average of 163.5 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 654 total yards. They have recorded 1 interception while surrendering 0 fumbles lost, and have recorded 49 first downs as a team. The Buffalo offense has relinquished 197 total yards by way of 25 violations, putting them 21st in the league when you look at helping out the other team. This year, the Bills sit at 962 yards through the air and average 240.5 yards through the air per game, putting them 6th in the NFL. When analyzing how much they score, the Bills are ranking 2nd in the NFL, by tallying 33.3 points per contest.

The Bills are giving up 22.5 points per outing, which ranks them 17th in pro football. They have conceded 6 touchdowns by way of the pass plus 125.8 passing yds per outing, which has them ranked 1st in pro football. Buffalo has granted a total of 657 rushing yds (164.3 total yards per game), plus 5 touchdowns to rushers for the season. The Bills defense has taken the field for 221 plays from scrimmage, which is 3rd in football. The defense has collected 4 turnovers (2 forced fumbles and 2 picks) on the year. In total, they have conceded 90 pts.

Who will win tonight's Patriots-Bills NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Patriots +7.5

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