New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 9/29/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Monday, September 29, 2025

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 45

The Miami Dolphins (0-3) will compete against the New York Jets (0-3) at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday. New York is 2.5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The total comes in at 45.

The New York Jets come into this game holding a record of 0-3 for this campaign. When they last stepped on the football field, the Jets took the field against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and went home with a loss by a final score of 29-27. Tyrod Taylor finished 26-36 with 197 yds passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 92 and ended the game with 1 interception. Tyrod Taylor was the leader on the ground for the Jets with 8 totes for 48 yards (6.0 yards per carry). Garrett Wilson held an average of 8.4 yards per reception by totaling 84 yds on 10 receptions. The New York Jets ran the football 23 different times and had 99 yds, which came out to an average of 4.3 yds per carry. On the day, they tallied 59 plays which converted into 267 yards. New York gave up 19 pass completions on 29 attempts for a total of 225 yds, and a completion rate of 65.5%. When it came to stopping the run, the Jets gave up 122 yds on 34 attempts, which is an average of 3.6 yds per run allowed.

If you look at getting in the endzone, the group representing New York hold an average of 23.0 points per contest. Collectively, they're maintaining an average of 127.0 rushing yards which is 10th in the league. The Jets have accumulated 815 yards over the course of this year. New York has attained 27 1st downs, and they have been called for 19 infractions for 190 total yards. They have turned the ball over 4 times (1 interception and 3 lost fumbles). Regarding getting the ball in the endzone, New York has tallied 4 touchdowns through the air and 3 running touchdowns.

The Jets sit 28th in football when it comes to their opponents scoring, surrendering 31.0 points per outing. They are allowing 4.1 yds per running attempt and 133.0 rushing yds per game this year. Regarding yards via the pass, the Jets have surrendered 622 yards, which has them sitting 14th in the league. They have allowed 207.3 total yards per contest via the pass, and are relinquishing a completion percentage of 65.1%. In total, they are relinquishing 340.3 total yards per contest, which has them sitting 22nd in pro football. They have surrendered 5 touchdowns by way of the pass, in addition to 3 touchdowns on the ground. In total, they have allowed 399 yards via the ground game in 3 outings over the course of the season.

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The Dolphins head into this matchup 0-3 over the course of the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins walked away with a loss by a score of 31-21 when they played the Buffalo Bills. Tua Tagovailoa (2 TDs) ended the contest with 146 yards on 22-34 through the air while his QB rate was 81.2. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 4.3 yds. De'Von Achane ran the ball 12 times for 62 yds, walking away from the contest with 5.2 yds per carry for Miami. Tyreek Hill was the best receiver for the Dolphins, grabbing 5 passes for 49 yds (9.8 yards per reception). Miami rushed the football for 5.2 yards per carry, finishing with 130 yds on 25 attempts. The Dolphins ended up finishing with 276 yards while running 59 plays (4.7 yards per play). The Dolphins pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 78.6%, surrendering 203 yds on 22 for 28 through the air. Miami allowed 27 attempts on the ground for 157 yds (5.8 yards per carry).

The Miami Dolphins average 281.7 total yards per outing, ranking this team at 23rd in pro football. They maintain an average of 89.7 rushing yds per game, and have carried the ball for 269 yards. They have compiled 4 picks while granting 1 fumble, and have been able to obtain 35 first downs as a team. The Miami offense has conceded 137 yards by way of 19 penalty flags, which ranks them 22nd in the league when you look at hurting your team. In this campaign, the Dolphins have thrown for a total of 576 pass yds and are sitting at 192.0 pass yds per game, which ranks them 21st in the league. When examining the points being put on the board, the Dolphins currently rank 25th in football, with an average of 18.7 PPG.

They have relinquished 6 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 225.3 passing yds per game, putting them 21st in the NFL. Miami has relinquished a total of 435 rush yards (145.0 yards per outing), in addition to 4 touchdowns on the ground on the year. The D currently has 0 takeaways on the campaign. Overall, they have surrendered 97 total points. The Dolphins defense has taken part in 182 plays from scrimmage, which ranks them at 16th in football. The Dolphins are surrendering 32.3 points per game, ranking this team at 32nd in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Jets-Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Jets +2.5

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