Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction, 9/21/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 3

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (+1)

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

The New England Patriots (1-1) will play the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. New England opens this game as 1-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 44.5.

The Pittsburgh Steelers step on the gridiron 1-1 so far this season. In their last contest, the Steelers faced the Seattle Seahawks and ended up losing by a score of 31-17. Aaron Rodgers finished 18-33 with 203 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rating of 58 and finished the contest with 2 interceptions. Jaylen Warren was the leader on the ground for the Steelers with 14 carries for 48 yds (3.4 yds per attempt). Jaylen Warren had an average of 21.5 yds per catch by earning 86 yards on 4 catches. The Pittsburgh Steelers ran the football 21 different times and compiled 72 yds, which came out to an average of 3.4 yds per attempt. When all was said and done, they ran 56 plays for 267 yards. Pittsburgh relinquished 22 completions on 33 attempts for a total of 278 yds, and a completion percentage of 66.7%. In the running game, the Steelers gave up 117 yds on 29 attempts, which is an average of 4.0 yds per run allowed.

The Steelers have racked up 538 total yards this season. Pittsburgh has notched 20 1st downs as a team, and they have committed 6 infractions for 41 yds. If you examine scoring, Pittsburgh currently has 5 touchdowns via the pass and 0 TD's on the ground. They have turned the football over 2 times. Offensively, they're averaging 62.5 running yds which is good for 30th in professional football. When analyzing getting the ball into the endzone, the AFC North representatives average 25.5 points per outing.

The Steelers rank 29th in the NFL when examining opponents scoring, allowing 31.5 points per outing. The opposition is running for 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and 149.5 running yds per game on the season. If you examine pass yards, the Steelers have yielded 490 yards, which is 25th in professional football. They have surrendered 245.0 total yards per outing via the pass, and are relinquishing a completion percentage of 69.1%. In total, they are conceding 394.5 yards per game, ranking them 29th in football. They have relinquished 3 touchdowns through the air, and 4 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they have allowed 299 yards via the ground game in 2 contests for the year.

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The Patriots step onto the field with a record of 1-1 over the course of this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Patriots walked away with a victory by a final of 33-27 when they faced the Miami Dolphins. Drake Maye (2 touchdowns) finished the game with 230 yards on 19-23 through the air while his QB rating was 137.3. He didn't toss any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 10.0 yds. Rhamondre Stevenson had the best day in terms of receiving for the Patriots, grabbing 5 throws for 88 yds (17.6 yards per catch). Rhamondre Stevenson carried the rock 11 times for 54 yds, ending the game with 4.9 yds per carry for New England. The Patriots finished the game with a total of 333 yds on 52 plays (6.4 yards per play). New England rushed the football for 4.2 yards per attempt, totaling 122 yards on 29 carries. New England allowed 15 rush attempts for 61 yards (4.1 yds per rush). The Patriots pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 81.3%, relinquishing 297 yards on 26 for 32 passing.

The New England Patriots have an average of 334.5 total yards per outing, which has them ranked 13th in the NFL. They have an average of 91.0 running yds per outing, and have carried the football for 182 total yards. They have tallied 24 1st downs as an offense. The New England offense has relinquished 145 total yards on 20 infractions, which has them ranked 3rd in the NFL when examining making mistakes. In this campaign, the Patriots have racked up 487 yards via the pass and have an average of 243.5 yards via the pass per game, ranking them 9th in football. When examining the points being put on the board, the Patriots currently sit 14th in football, with an average of 23.0 PPG.

The Patriots are conceding 23.5 PPG, ranking them 19th in football. They have allowed 3 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 315.0 pass yards per game, which is good for 32nd in professional football. New England has yielded a total of 117 rush yards (58.5 yards per game), along with 1 touchdown via the ground game over the course of the season. The Patriots defense has taken the field for 114 plays from the line of scrimmage, which is good for 9th in professional football. Their defense has compiled 2 turnovers. Overall, they have allowed 47 points.

Who will win tonight's Steelers-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Steelers -1

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