Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 11/16/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 11

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Bills (-5.5)

Total-Over-Under: 49

The Buffalo Bills (6-3) will go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Buffalo opens this contest as 5.5-point favorites. The over-under is 49.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into this game 6-3 on the campaign. In their last game, the Buccaneers played the New England Patriots and went home with a loss by a final score of 28-23. Rachaad White was the rushing leader for the Buccaneers with 10 attempts for 38 yds (3.8 yds per carry). Emeka Egbuka had an average of 19.2 yards per catch by earning 115 yds on 6 receptions. Baker Mayfield went 28-43 with 273 yards passing and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 106.1 and ended the contest without throwing a pick. Against the rush, the Buccaneers gave up 166 yds on 27 attempts, which is an average of 6.1 yards per run allowed. Tampa Bay surrendered 16 completions on 31 tries for 269 yds, and a completion rate of 51.6%. On the day, they ran 64 plays which gave them a total of 371 yds. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up running the ball 21 times and accrued 113 yds, which is an average of 5.4 yards per attempt.

If you analyze putting points on the board, the team who plays in Tampa Bay hold an average of 24.4 PPG. As a team, they're sitting at 99.8 running yds which has them ranking 25th in the league. The Buccaneers have a total of 2,955 total yards over the course of this season. Tampa Bay has amassed 100 first downs, and they have committed 56 infractions for 437 yards. They have turned the football over 5 different times (2 picks and 3 fumbles lost). If you analyze scoring touchdowns, Tampa Bay has recorded 16 passing TD's and 6 rushing TD's.

If you look at yards through the air, the Buccaneers have conceded 2,099 yards, which has them sitting 20th in football. They have yielded 233.2 yards per contest via the pass, and are allowing a completion percentage of 65.8%. On the whole, they have granted 907 rushing yards through 9 contests over the course of this season. They have given up 13 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 9 touchdowns via the rush. In total, they are surrendering 334.0 yards per contest, ranking them 20th in professional football. They are allowing 4.2 yds per tote and 100.8 running yds per outing on the campaign. The Buccaneers are sitting 14th in the NFL regarding their defensive prowess, granting 22.9 PPG.

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The Bills step on the gridiron with a record of 6-3 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bills walked away with a loss by a score of 30-13 when they faced the Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen (2 TDs) ended the game with 306 yds on 28-40 through the air while his quarterback rate was 98.5. He threw 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.7 yards. James Cook carried the ball 13 times for 53 yds, finishing the game with 4.1 yds per carry for Buffalo. Keon Coleman was one of the featured targets for the Bills, grabbing 3 balls for 46 yards (15.3 yards per catch). Buffalo rushed the football for 4.0 yds per attempt, finishing with a total of 87 yards on 22 carries. The Bills finished the contest with 376 yds and they ran 62 plays (6.1 yds per play). The Bills pass defense allowed a completion rate of 71.4%, surrendering 173 yards on 15 for 21 through the air. Buffalo conceded 32 running attempts for 197 yards (6.2 yds per carry).

The Buffalo Bills have an average of 384.4 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 2nd in the NFL. They maintain an average of 153.2 running yds per outing, and have run for 1,379 yards. They have compiled 5 interceptions while surrendering 4 fumbles lost, and have been able to obtain 108 1st downs offensively. The Buffalo offense has conceded 518 total yards on 61 violations, which has them ranking 17th in the league with reference to helping out the other team. In this season, the Bills have thrown for a total of 2,081 yards through the air and hold an average of 231.2 yards through the air per contest, which ranks them at 12th in pro football. If you analyze their scoring prowess, the Bills are sitting 6th in the NFL, scoring 27.6 PPG.

The Bills are allowing 21.9 points per game, which has them ranking 11th in the league. They have granted 9 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 170.2 passing yards per game, ranking this team at 3rd in the NFL. Buffalo has surrendered a total of 1,328 rushing yds (147.6 yds per contest), in addition to 14 touchdowns to rushers this season. The Bills defense has taken the field for 512 plays from scrimmage, which ranks them at 4th in the league. The D has notched 11 turnovers (5 forced fumbles and 6 INTs) over the course of the season. On the whole, they have allowed 197 pts.

Who will win tonight's Buccaneers-Bills NFL game against the spread?

Parlays Pundit's Pick: Take the Bills -5.5 and over 49 total points

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