Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 12/28/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 17

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins (+5.5)

Total-Over-Under: 46

The Miami Dolphins (6-9) will go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Miami opens as 5.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 46.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers step on the gridiron holding a record of 7-8 on the campaign. When they last took the field, the Buccaneers faced the Carolina Panthers and ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Baker Mayfield connected on 18-26 with 145 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a QB rating of 79.8 and ended the game with 1 pick. Bucky Irving led the offense in rushing for the Buccaneers with 19 carries for 71 yards (3.7 yds per attempt). Mike Evans had an average of 6.2 yards per reception by notching 31 yards on 5 receptions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball 33 different times and accrued 169 yds, earning them an average of 5.1 yds per carry. When all was said and done, they tallied 59 plays for 296 yards. Tampa Bay conceded 21 completions on 32 tries for a total of 174 yards, and a completion rate of 65.6%. In the running game, the Buccaneers conceded 101 yards on 20 tries, which calculates to 5.1 yds per rush surrendered.

The Buccaneers have collected 4,729 yds on the campaign. Tampa Bay has attained 148 first downs offensively, and they have been called for 84 penalties for 647 yds. When you look at getting the ball into the endzone, Tampa Bay has compiled 23 passing TD's and 13 TD's via the ground game. They have surrendered the ball 12 times (8 INTs and 4 lost fumbles). As a team, they're averaging 116.9 rushing yards which ranks 20th in pro football. When examining putting the ball in the endzone, the Buccaneers hold an average of 23.1 points per contest.

The Buccaneers are ranking 24th in the league regarding the other team scoring points, conceding 25.1 points per contest. They are allowing an average of 4.3 yds per rush on the ground and 101.3 rushing yds per game on the campaign. When examining yards through the air, the Buccaneers have given up 3,630 yards, which has them sitting 27th in football. They have yielded 242.0 total yards per game by way of the pass, and are conceding a completion rate of 66.7%. On the whole, they are conceding 343.3 yds per outing, which has them sitting 22nd in the league. They have relinquished 26 touchdowns by way of the pass, as well as 16 touchdowns to runners. Altogether, they have granted 1,520 rushing yards through 15 matchups this season.

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The Dolphins come into this matchup holding a record of 6-9 this season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Dolphins took a loss by a final score of 45-21 when they played the Cincinnati Bengals. Quinn Ewers ended the game with 260 yards on 20-30 passing while his QB rate was 66. He tossed 2 interceptions and his Y-A was 8.7 yards. De'Von Achane ran the ball 15 times for 81 yds, ending the game with 5.4 yards per carry for Miami. Jaylen Waddle was the top contributor in the passing game for the Dolphins, grabbing 5 balls for 72 yards (14.4 yards per catch). Miami ran for 4.6 yds per carry, totaling 129 yds on 28 attempts. The Dolphins finished the game with a total of 389 yds while running 58 plays (6.7 yds per play). The Dolphins passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 78.8%, relinquishing 302 yards on 26 out of 33 passing. Miami conceded 26 attempts on the ground for 105 yds (4.0 yards per rush).

With reference to their ability to score points, the Dolphins are ranked 22nd in the NFL, with an average of 21.1 points per outing. This year, the Dolphins have thrown for 2,798 pass yards and have an average of 186.5 pass yards per game, ranking them 25th in the league. They average 122.4 rush yds per outing, and have rushed for 1,836 yds. The Miami Dolphins average 308.9 yds per game, ranking them 24th in the league. The Miami offense has yielded 682 yards on 84 penalties, which is 29th in pro football with reference to helping out the other team. They have compiled 17 interceptions while giving up 5 fumbles, and have recorded 161 1st downs as a unit.

They have yielded 26 touchdowns by way of the pass as well as 209.1 yards through the air per game, which has them ranking 15th in the league. Miami has granted a total of 1,955 rushing yards (130.3 total yards per game), as well as 14 touchdowns to runners for this campaign. Their defense has attained 17 takeaways (10 fumbles forced and 7 picks) on the campaign. Altogether, they have granted 369 pts. The Dolphins defense has been on the field for 904 plays from the line of scrimmage, which has them ranking 12th in the league. The Dolphins are yielding 24.6 PPG, which has them ranked 22nd in the league.

Who will win tonight's Buccaneers-Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Buccaneers -5.5

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