Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 11/16/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 11

Game: Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025

Location: Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain

TV: NFL Net NFL+

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 47.5

The Washington Commanders (3-7) are traveling to Santiago Bernabeu on Sunday where they will meet the Miami Dolphins (3-7). Miami opens this contest as 2.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over-under comes in at 47.5.

The Washington Commanders step on the gridiron holding a record of 3-7 for the year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Commanders took on the Detroit Lions and ended up losing by a score of 44-22. Marcus Mariota finished 16-22 with 213 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rate of 133.3 and ended the contest with no picks. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was the rushing leader for the Commanders with 11 attempts for 30 yds (2.7 yards per attempt). Robbie Chosen averaged 17.0 yds per catch by accounting for 17 yds on 1 catch. The Washington Commanders ended up running the ball 27 different times and amassed 93 yds, which came out to an average of 3.4 yards per carry. Overall, they ran 49 plays for 288 yds. Washington relinquished 25 completions on 35 tries for 320 yards, and a completion rate of 71.4%. Against the run, the Commanders conceded 226 yds on 33 attempts, which averages out to 6.8 yards per rush surrendered.

When examining scoring points, the NFC East members average 22.3 points per game. As a team, they're sitting at 135.2 running yds which has them ranking 7th in the league. The Commanders have compiled 3,253 yds for the season. Washington has amassed 90 first downs, and they have committed 72 infractions for 612 yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 12 times (6 INTs and 6 fumbles). If you analyze putting points on the board, Washington currently has 14 touchdowns via the pass and 12 rushing TD's.

The Commanders are sitting 29th in football if you're looking at their defensive abilities, allowing 28.0 PPG. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.6 yds per rush on the ground and 134.4 rush yds per outing for the season. If you look at yards through the air, the Commanders have conceded 2,602 yards, which has them sitting 32nd in football. They have conceded 260.2 total yards per contest via the pass, and are yielding a completion% of 67.9%. All in all, they are granting 394.6 yards per outing, which has them sitting 30th in football. They have conceded 22 touchdowns via the pass, and 9 touchdowns to runners. In total, they have allowed 1,344 yards via the running game in 10 games over the course of the season.

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The Dolphins step on the gridiron with a record of 3-7 over the course of the season. In their last contest, the Dolphins got the victory with a final of 30-13 when they played the Buffalo Bills. De'Von Achane carried the ball 22 times for 174 yards, walking away from the game with 7.9 yards per attempt for Miami. De'Von Achane was featured in the passing game for the Dolphins, bringing in 6 balls for 51 yards (8.5 yds per reception). Tua Tagovailoa (2 TDs) finished the contest with 173 yards on 15-21 through the air while his quarterback rate was 88.1. He tossed 2 interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 8.2 yds. Miami conceded 22 run attempts for 87 yds (4.0 yds per carry). The Dolphins secondary gave up a completion percentage of 70.0%, surrendering 289 yds on 28 out of 40 through the air. The Dolphins finished the game with a total of 370 yds while they ran 53 plays (7.0 yards per play). Miami rushed the ball for 6.2 yds per carry, finishing with 197 yards on 32 carries.

The Miami Dolphins have an average of 299.3 yards per contest, ranking them 25th in professional football. They have an average of 107.2 rushing yds per contest, and have rushed for 1,072 yards. They have compiled 13 INTs while relinquishing 4 fumbles, and have been able to tally 108 first downs. The Miami offense has allowed 523 yards on 63 violations, which has them sitting 13th in football when examining giving up free yards. On the season, the Dolphins have compiled 1,921 pass yards and average 192.1 pass yards per outing, which ranks them at 24th in football. When examining the points being put on the board, the Dolphins are ranked 26th in the league, by scoring 21.0 points per game.

They have conceded 17 touchdowns via the pass and 207.2 yards through the air per outing, which has them sitting 13th in football. Miami has relinquished a total of 1,397 rush yds (139.7 yds per outing), and 10 touchdowns on the ground for the season. The defense has recorded 10 takeaways (8 fumbles forced and 2 INTs) over the course of this season. On the whole, they have allowed 256 pts. The Dolphins defense has taken the field for 591 plays, which is good for 23rd in football. The Dolphins are surrendering 25.6 points per contest, which ranks them at 24th in football.

Who will win tonight's Commanders-Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Dolphins -2.5

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