Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, 10/5/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Date: Monday, October 5, 2026

Location: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Saints -3.0

Total-Over-Under: 48

Caesars Superdome is the location where the New Orleans Saints (1-2) will try to beat the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) on Monday. Atlanta opens this contest as 3-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 48.

The Atlanta Falcons step onto the field holding a record of 1-2 on the season. When they last took the field, the Falcons faced the Green Bay Packers and earned the victory with a final of 35-14. Michael Penix finished 18-25 with 256 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He had a quarterback rate of 101.4 and walked away from the contest with 1 pick. Drake London averaged 21.6 yds per catch by accumulating 194 yds on 9 receptions. Bijan Robinson was the rushing leader for the Falcons with 29 attempts for 194 yards (6.7 yards per attempt). In all, they ran 66 plays which gave them 498 yds. The Atlanta Falcons ran the football 41 times and recorded 242 yards, which had them averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. In the running game, the Falcons gave up 17 yards on 9 attempts, which averages out to 1.9 yds per run surrendered. Atlanta allowed 28 pass completions on 53 attempts for a total of 311 yards, and a completion percentage of 52.8%.

The Falcons have notched 1,022 total yards so far this season. Atlanta has notched 22 1st downs as a team, and they have committed 21 penalties for 218 yds. If you're looking at getting the ball in the endzone, Atlanta currently has 2 passing touchdowns and 3 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the ball over 8 different times (6 picks and 2 lost fumbles). As a team, they're holding an average of 173.0 running yds putting them 2nd in the league. If you look at putting the ball in the endzone, the Falcons are averaging 17.0 points per contest.

If you look at pass yards, the Falcons have relinquished 789 yds, putting them 29th in the league. They have granted 263.0 yards per contest via the pass, and are giving up a completion rate of 57.7%. Altogether, they have surrendered 143 rushing yards through 3 contests on the campaign. They have relinquished 6 touchdowns through the air, and no touchdowns via the rush. In total, they are giving up 310.7 total yards per contest, which ranks them 8th in football. They are allowing 2.8 yards per running attempt and 47.7 running yards per contest over the course of this season. The Falcons sit 15th in pro football when analyzing opponents scoring, conceding 22.7 points per outing.

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The Saints come into this game with a record of 1-2 over the course of this year. In their last game, the Saints walked away with a loss by a score of 35-27 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Tyler Shough (4 touchdowns) ended the contest with 255 yds on 29-42 passing while his QB rate was 106.7. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.1 yds. Chris Olave was one of the featured targets for the Saints, catching 9 balls for 107 yds (11.9 yds per reception). Travis Etienne carried the rock 13 times for 57 yds, walking away from the contest with 4.4 yards per attempt for New Orleans. The Saints finished the game with 381 yds while running 70 plays (5.4 yds per play). New Orleans rushed the football for 5.3 yds per attempt, finishing with a total of 148 yds on 28 carries. New Orleans relinquished 27 running attempts for 113 yds (4.2 yds per carry). The Saints passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 66.7%, surrendering 227 yds on 22 for 33 through the air.

The New Orleans Saints average 382.7 yds per contest, ranking this team at 8th in professional football. They hold an average of 101.3 rush yds per contest, and have rushed for 304 yards. They have allowed 3 picks while granting 4 fumbles lost, and have been able to earn 48 first downs. The New Orleans offense has relinquished 124 total yards by way of 19 penalty flags, ranking this team at 23rd in pro football if you analyze helping out the other team. On the season, the Saints have a total of 844 passing yds and are averaging 281.3 passing yds per contest, which ranks them 3rd in football. Concerning their scoring prowess, the Saints are 11th in football, maintaining an average of 27.0 points per game.

The Saints are yielding 27.7 points per outing, which ranks 26th in pro football. They have relinquished 6 touchdowns via the pass and 211.7 passing yards per game, ranking this team at 16th in pro football. New Orleans has surrendered a total of 386 rush yds (128.7 total yards per contest), along with 4 touchdowns to runners on the season. The Saints defense has taken the field for 192 plays from the line of scrimmage, ranking this team at 21st in professional football. Their defense currently has 3 takeaways (2 fumbles forced and 1 interception) on the year. In total, they have surrendered 83 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Falcons-Saints NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Saints -3.0

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