Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: NBC

Odds-Point Spread: Falcons -3.5

Total-Over-Under: 43.5

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is the location where the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) will try to beat the Baltimore Ravens (3-1) on Sunday. Baltimore is 3.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total has been set at 43.5.

The Baltimore Ravens head into this game 3-1 for this campaign. When they last took the field, the Ravens stepped onto the field against the Tennessee Titans and walked away with a win by a score of 24-18. Lamar Jackson connected on 15-20 with 222 yds passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 144.2 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Derrick Henry was the best rusher for the Ravens with 23 totes for 73 yards (3.2 yds per carry). Zay Flowers had an average of 14.8 yds per reception by earning 118 yds on 8 receptions. The Baltimore Ravens ran the football 30 times and had 112 yards, which had them averaging 3.7 yds per attempt. When all was said and done, they had 59 plays which gave them 384 yards. Baltimore relinquished 20 pass completions on 31 attempts for 212 yds, and a completion rate of 64.5%. When it came to the battle of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens gave up 85 yards on 26 tries, which calculates to 3.3 yards per run allowed.

The Ravens currently have 1,580 yds on the campaign. Baltimore has accumulated 45 first downs as an offense, and they have been called for 39 infractions for 329 total yards. If you look at scoring touchdowns, Baltimore has attained 6 touchdowns via the pass and 8 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the football over 2 times (1 interception and 1 fumble). Collectively, they're averaging 153.5 running yards which has them ranked 4th in the NFL. With reference to scoring, the Ravens hold an average of 29.0 points per game.

The Ravens currently rank 19th in professional football regarding their opponents scoring, relinquishing 24.0 points per game. They are giving up an average of 3.9 yards per rushing attempt and 100.0 rushing yds per game on the year. If you analyze yards through the air, the Ravens have relinquished 861 yards, which has them ranked 16th in pro football. They have yielded 215.3 total yards per contest through the air, and are giving up a completion rate of 66.9%. Altogether, they are giving up 315.3 total yards per contest, which has them ranked 10th in the NFL. They have given up 4 touchdowns via the pass, plus 6 touchdowns to runners. Altogether, they have allowed 400 yards on the ground through 4 contests for the season.

Get all of our NFL Expert Picks

The Falcons step on the gridiron with a record of 2-2 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Falcons took home the win by a final score of 45-24 when they faced the New Orleans Saints. Bijan Robinson ran the football 19 times for 145 yards, walking away from the game with 7.6 yards per carry for Atlanta. Drake London was the best receiver for the Falcons, hauling in 5 balls for 96 yds (19.2 yds per catch). Michael Penix (1 TD) ended the contest with 223 yds on 15-20 passing while his QB rating was 127.7. He didn't throw any interceptions and his Y-A was 11.2 yards. Atlanta surrendered 19 attempts on the ground for 50 yards (2.6 yards per carry). The Falcons pass defense gave up a completion rate of 62.5%, surrendering 270 yds on 30 for 48 through the air. The Falcons finished the game with 420 yards on 55 plays (7.6 yds per play). Atlanta rushed for 5.9 yards per carry, totaling 205 yds on 35 carries.

If you look at the points being put on the board, the Falcons currently rank 15th in professional football, with an average of 24.0 points per game. For the year, the Falcons have a total of 718 yards via the pass and have an average of 179.5 yards via the pass per outing, putting them 25th in football. They maintain an average of 181.0 running yds per contest, and have carried the football for 724 yards. The Atlanta Falcons hold an average of 360.5 yards per contest, which has them ranked 10th in pro football. The Atlanta offense has granted 288 yds on 29 penalty flags, putting them 18th in football when analyzing helping out the other team. They have allowed 6 interceptions while conceding 2 lost fumbles, and have been able to record 31 1st downs as a unit.

They have yielded 7 touchdowns by way of the pass along with 264.8 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 30th in pro football. Atlanta has conceded a total of 193 rushing yds (48.3 yards per game), along with 2 touchdowns to rushers on the year. The defense has earned 3 takeaways (2 fumbles forced and 1 interception) so far this season. Overall, they have relinquished 92 points. The Falcons defense has taken part in 256 plays from scrimmage, ranking them 24th in the league. The Falcons are allowing 23.0 points per game, which has them ranking 15th in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Ravens-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Falcons -3.5

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.