Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, 1/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026

Location: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Jaguars (+1.5)

Total-Over-Under: 51.5

EverBank Stadium is where the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) will meet the Buffalo Bills (12-5) on Sunday in an AFC Wild Card game. Jacksonville opens this matchup as 1.5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 51.5.

The Buffalo Bills step on the gridiron holding a record of 12-5 on the year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Bills played the New York Jets and walked away with a win by a score of 35-8. Ray Davis led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 21 attempts for 151 yards (7.2 yards per attempt). Gabriel Davis had an average of 8.2 yards per catch by accumulating 41 yds on 5 catches. Mitchell Trubisky went 22-29 with 259 yards passing and 4 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 142.1 and ended the game without throwing an interception. Against the run, the Bills conceded 69 yards on 23 tries, which is 3.0 yards per run surrendered. Buffalo conceded 11 completions on 22 attempts for 53 yards, and a completion percentage of 50.0%. At the end of the game, they ran 72 plays which converted into 470 yards. The Buffalo Bills ended up running the ball 43 times and accrued 211 yds, which is an average of 4.9 yards per tote.

When examining getting the ball into the endzone, the Bills hold an average of 28.3 points per contest. As a team, they are sitting at 159.6 rushing yards putting them 1st in professional football. The Bills have attained 6,397 yds on the campaign. Buffalo has earned 196 1st downs as a team, and they have committed 101 penalties for 848 total yards. They have surrendered the ball 19 different times (10 interceptions and 9 lost fumbles). If you examine scoring, Buffalo has earned 29 passing touchdowns and 30 ground TD's.

Concerning passing yards, the Bills have allowed 2,668 yds, giving them a rank of 1st in pro football. They have conceded 156.9 yds per contest through the air, and are relinquishing a completion% of 59.7%. Overall, they have allowed 2,315 yards on the ground through 17 matchups this season. They have conceded 19 touchdowns through the air, along with 24 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they are allowing 293.1 total yards per outing, which ranks 7th in football. The opposition is running for an average of 5.1 yds per tote and 136.2 running yds per outing on the season. The Bills currently rank 12th in the league when analyzing opponents scoring, granting 21.5 PPG.

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The Jaguars head into this matchup 13-4 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Jaguars walked away with a victory by a final of 41-7 when they faced the Tennessee Titans. Trevor Lawrence (3 touchdowns) walked away from the contest with 255 yards on 22-30 through the air while his QB rating was 131.9. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his Y-A was 8.5 yards. Brenton Strange was a featured target for the Jaguars, snagging 6 balls for 52 yards (8.7 yards per catch). Travis Etienne ran the football 14 times for 32 yards, finishing the contest with 2.3 yards per attempt for Jacksonville. The Jaguars finished the contest with 319 yds and they ran 56 plays (5.7 yards per play). Jacksonville ran the ball for 2.7 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 64 yds on 24 attempts. Jacksonville conceded 19 attempts on the ground for 77 yards (4.1 yards per rush). The Jaguars secondary conceded a completion percentage of 60.6%, relinquishing 117 yds on 20 for 33 passing.

The Jacksonville Jaguars maintain an average of 337.4 yds per game, giving them a rank of 11th in pro football. They hold an average of 115.1 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 1,956 total yards. They have compiled 12 INTs while giving up 6 fumbles lost, and have obtained 196 1st downs offensively. The Jacksonville offense has granted 1,080 yds on 128 penalties, ranking them 3rd in professional football when you look at giving up free yards. So far this season, the Jaguars have thrown for a total of 3,779 pass yds and are sitting at 222.3 pass yds per outing, which ranks 12th in football. In terms of the points being put on the board, the Jaguars rank 6th in the NFL, maintaining an average of 27.9 points per contest.

The Jaguars are relinquishing 19.8 points per game, which has them ranking 8th in the league. They have conceded 25 touchdowns by way of the pass plus 218.1 pass yards per outing, ranking them 21st in professional football. Jacksonville has allowed a total of 1,455 rushing yds (85.6 yds per game), as well as 13 touchdowns via the ground game on the campaign. The Jaguars defense has been on the field for 1,036 plays from scrimmage, which has them sitting 14th in pro football. The defense has a total of 31 takeaways (9 forced fumbles and 22 interceptions) for the year. Overall, they have conceded 336 pts.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Jaguars NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Bills -1.5

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