Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 10/18/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 6

Game: Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Bears -3.0

Total-Over-Under: 48.5

The Atlanta Falcons (2-3) will try to beat the Chicago Bears (3-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Atlanta opens as 3-point dogs from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 48.5.

The Chicago Bears head into this matchup 3-2 for the season. In their last game, the Bears played the Green Bay Packers and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 31-7. Tyson Bagent went 12-21 with 87 yds passing. He had a QB rate of 27.4 and walked away from the contest with 2 picks. Luther Burden had an average of 11.8 yds per catch by totaling 47 yards on 4 catches. D'Andre Swift was the best rusher for the Bears with 9 attempts for 43 yards (4.8 yards per attempt). In the game, they had 64 plays which gave them a total of 246 yards. The Chicago Bears ran the ball 24 different times and amassed 81 yds, which earned them an average of 3.4 yards per carry. Against the run, the Bears gave up 70 yards on 26 attempts, which is 2.7 yards per run surrendered. Chicago gave up 25 completions on 31 attempts for a total of 358 yards, and a completion percentage of 80.6%.

The Bears have recorded 1,962 yards for the season. Chicago has a total of 59 first downs, and they have been called for 32 penalties for 209 yards. Concerning scoring points, Chicago currently has 4 touchdowns through the air and 10 running touchdowns. They have given the ball away 10 times (5 interceptions and 5 lost fumbles). As a unit, they are sitting at 173.2 rushing yds which has them ranking 1st in pro football. With reference to notching touchdowns, the team representing Chicago are averaging 23.8 points per contest.

The Bears are sitting 5th in the league if you analyze their opponents scoring, surrendering 19.2 points per game. They are giving up an average of 4.4 yds per rush on the ground and 96.0 rush yds per contest for the season. Regarding yards through the air, the Bears have relinquished 1,077 total yards, ranking this team at 14th in football. They have given up 215.4 yards per contest through the air, and are granting a completion rate of 63.8%. All in all, they are conceding 311.4 yards per outing, which ranks them at 9th in pro football. They have given up 6 touchdowns through the air, plus 5 touchdowns on the ground. Overall, they have given up 480 rushing yards through 5 games over the course of this season.

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The Falcons head into this matchup 2-3 over the course of this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Falcons took a loss by a final score of 30-23 against the Baltimore Ravens. Michael Penix (1 TD) walked away from the game with 240 yds on 19-32 through the air while his quarterback rate was 93.2. He didn't throw any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 7.5 yards. Bijan Robinson carried the rock 17 times for 86 yards, ending the contest with 5.1 yds per carry for Atlanta. Drake London was featured in the passing game for the Falcons, hauling in 7 footballs for 118 yards (16.9 yds per catch). Atlanta rushed the ball for 4.2 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 110 yards on 26 carries. The Falcons finished the contest with a total of 367 yards and they ran 61 plays (6.0 yds per play). The Falcons passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 75.0%, surrendering 183 yds on 24 out of 32 through the air. Atlanta conceded 35 attempts on the ground for 208 yds (5.9 yards per rush).

Concerning the points being put on the board, the Falcons sit 13th in pro football, averaging 23.8 points per contest. In this campaign, the Falcons have earned 975 passing yards and hold an average of 195.0 passing yards per game, which ranks them 21st in professional football. They average 166.8 rushing yds per contest, and have carried the football for 834 yards. The Atlanta Falcons maintain an average of 361.8 yds per outing, giving them a rank of 10th in football. The Atlanta offense has conceded 355 yards by way of 36 penalty flags, which has them ranking 16th in pro football in terms of giving up free yards. They have recorded 7 INTs while yielding 2 lost fumbles, and have recorded 45 first downs offensively.

They have allowed 9 touchdowns via the pass along with 248.4 pass yards per contest, which ranks 27th in the league. Atlanta has conceded a total of 401 rush yds (80.2 yds per outing), as well as 3 touchdowns to rushers on the campaign. The D has collected 4 turnovers (3 fumbles forced and 1 interception) on the campaign. Overall, they have given up 122 points in total. The Falcons defense has participated in 327 plays from scrimmage, giving them a rank of 27th in football. The Falcons are conceding 24.4 points per game, which ranks 21st in the league.

Who will win tonight's Bears-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Bears -3.0

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