Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Bears -2.5

Total-Over-Under: 45.5

The Chicago Bears (3-1) are on their way to Lambeau Field on Sunday where they will play the Green Bay Packers (2-2). Green Bay opens this game as 2.5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 45.5.

The Chicago Bears head into this game 3-1 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bears stepped onto the field against the New York Jets and earned the victory with a final of 23-12. Tyson Bagent connected on 25-34 with 268 yds passing. He had a QB rating of 83.9 and ended the game with 1 pick. Kyle Monangai led the offense in rushing for the Bears with 30 totes for 146 yards (4.9 yards per carry). Rome Odunze averaged 15.7 yards per catch by recording 94 yards on 6 receptions. The Chicago Bears ran the ball a total of 54 times and amassed 232 yards, which earned them an average of 4.3 yds per carry. On the day, they tallied 88 plays which converted into 492 yds. Chicago surrendered 8 pass completions on 15 tries for 98 yards, and a completion rate of 53.3%. When it came to stopping the run, the Bears gave up 59 yds on 14 tries, which averages out to 4.2 yards per run allowed.

The Bears have earned 1,716 total yards for this campaign. Chicago has attained 48 first downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 29 penalties for 189 yds. If you look at scoring touchdowns, Chicago has attained 4 touchdowns via the pass and 9 rushing touchdowns. They have given the ball to the opposition 5 different times (2 picks and 3 fumbles lost). Offensively, they're sitting at 196.3 rushing yards putting them 1st in football. If you analyze getting in the endzone, the Bears are averaging 28.0 points per outing.

The Bears currently rank 4th in pro football when analyzing their defensive abilities, allowing 16.3 points per game. They are allowing 4.9 yds per run and 102.5 rush yards per contest for the season. If you look at pass yds, the Bears have allowed 719 total yards, which is 3rd in professional football. They have relinquished 179.8 yards per contest through the air, and are giving up a completion% of 58.6%. Overall, they are allowing 282.3 yards per contest, ranking them 3rd in the league. They have relinquished 4 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 3 touchdowns to rushers. All in all, they have yielded 410 yards via the ground game in 4 matchups for this campaign.

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The Packers come into this matchup holding a record of 2-2 this year. When they last stepped on the football field, the Packers got the victory with a final of 17-14 when they played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jordan Love (2 touchdowns) ended the contest with 197 yds on 22-30 passing while his QB rate was 98.9. He tossed 1 interception and his avg yards per attempt was 6.6 yds. Kaleb Johnson carried the football 8 times for 42 yards, walking away from the game with 5.3 yds per carry for Green Bay. Christian Watson was a featured target for the Packers, bringing in 3 throws for 47 yards (15.7 yds per reception). Green Bay ran the ball for 3.4 yards per tote, finishing with a total of 86 yds on 25 attempts. The Packers finished with 283 yards and they ran 55 plays (5.1 yards per play). The Packers passing defense conceded a completion rate of 70.4%, surrendering 134 yds on 19 for 27 passing. Green Bay surrendered 31 running attempts for 141 yards (4.5 yards per rush).

The Green Bay Packers maintain an average of 307.3 yards per contest, ranking them 20th in the league. They hold an average of 58.0 rush yards per contest, and have rushed for 232 yards. They have tossed 3 INTs while yielding 3 fumbles lost, and have tallied 48 1st downs offensively. The Green Bay offense has allowed 344 yds by way of 42 infractions, which has them ranked 2nd in pro football if you analyze helping out the other team. So far this season, the Packers have a total of 997 passing yards and hold an average of 249.3 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 11th in pro football. If you look at their scoring prowess, the Packers currently rank 28th in the league, with 18.3 PPG.

They have relinquished 6 touchdowns through the air in addition to 185.0 pass yds per contest, ranking them 4th in the league. Green Bay has surrendered a total of 557 running yards (139.3 total yards per contest), and 7 touchdowns by way of the ground game for the season. The D has tallied 4 turnovers this season. All in all, they have granted 105 points in total. The Packers defense has taken the field for 260 plays from the line of scrimmage, which has them ranked 27th in pro football. The Packers are giving up 26.3 points per game, which is 23rd in professional football.

Who will win tonight's Bears-Packers NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Bears -2.5

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