Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Prediction, 10/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Texans -2.5

Total-Over-Under: 47

Reliant Stadium is where the Houston Texans (0-3) will take on the Dallas Cowboys (1-2) on Sunday. Dallas opens as 2.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 47.

The Dallas Cowboys come into this game holding a record of 1-2 over the course of the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Cowboys played the Baltimore Ravens and took a loss by a score of 34-31. Dak Prescott finished 25-40 with 276 yds through the air and 1 TD. He had a QB rate of 91.2 and ended the game without throwing a pick. Javonte Williams led the offense in rushing for the Cowboys with 19 carries for 98 yards (5.2 yards per carry). CeeDee Lamb averaged 16.0 yards per catch by accumulating 112 yds on 7 catches. The Dallas Cowboys ended up running the ball 30 different times and compiled 148 yards, which came out to an average of 4.9 yards per carry. In all, they tallied 70 plays which gave them 415 yds. Dallas conceded 15 pass completions on 20 attempts for 186 yds, and a completion rate of 75.0%. In the running game, the Cowboys conceded 192 yards on 38 tries, which calculates to 5.1 yds per rush allowed.

With reference to getting the ball into the endzone, the NFC East representatives hold an average of 29.3 points per outing. Collectively, they average 94.3 rush yards ranking this team at 23rd in professional football. The Cowboys have notched 991 total yards so far this season. Dallas has earned 42 1st downs, and they have committed 21 infractions for 210 yards. They have coughed up the ball 2 different times (1 interception and 1 fumble). In terms of getting in the endzone, Dallas has racked up 7 passing TD's and 3 running touchdowns.

If you look at pass yards, the Cowboys have relinquished 622 yds, putting them 15th in the league. They have relinquished 207.3 total yards per game via the pass, and are granting a completion rate of 72.6%. Overall, they have allowed 539 yards via the ground game in 3 contests over the course of this year. They have granted 7 touchdowns via the pass, and 3 touchdowns to runners. In total, they are granting 387.0 yards per contest, which has them sitting 30th in football. Opposing teams are running for an average of 5.0 yds per run and 179.7 running yds per contest for the season. The Cowboys rank 25th in pro football if you analyze their defensive prowess, conceding 27.3 points per game.

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The Texans come into this matchup holding a record of 0-3 for this campaign. When they last stepped on the football field, the Texans walked away with a loss by a score of 19-17 against the Indianapolis Colts. C.J. Stroud (1 touchdown) walked away from the contest with 167 yds on 16-27 through the air while his QB rating was 89.6. He didn't throw any interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 6.2 yds. Xavier Hutchinson was featured in the passing game for the Texans, snagging 3 balls for 51 yds (17.0 yds per catch). David Montgomery carried the rock 11 times for 33 yds, walking away from the contest with 3.0 yds per carry for Houston. The Texans finished the contest with a total of 223 yds while they ran 48 plays (4.6 yds per play). Houston ran the football for 3.3 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 70 yards on 21 carries. Houston allowed 31 run attempts for 89 yds (2.9 yds per carry). The Texans pass defense conceded a completion rate of 66.7%, surrendering 211 yards on 24 out of 36 passing.

The Houston Texans maintain an average of 326.0 total yards per outing, which ranks 14th in pro football. They have an average of 84.7 rush yds per contest, and have run for 254 total yards. They have tossed no picks while allowing 2 fumbles lost, and have recorded 34 1st downs offensively. The Houston offense has relinquished 203 yds on 18 penalty flags, ranking this team at 25th in professional football if you examine hurting your team. So far this year, the Texans have thrown for a total of 724 passing yards and average 241.3 passing yards per game, ranking this team at 10th in pro football. With reference to their scoring prowess, the Texans sit 24th in pro football, by tallying 18.0 points per outing.

They have relinquished 5 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 238.7 passing yards per outing, which ranks 26th in pro football. Houston has allowed a total of 260 rush yards (86.7 yards per game), plus 2 touchdowns via the rush over the course of the season. The defense has accrued 3 turnovers (2 forced fumbles and 1 interception) on the season. Altogether, they have yielded 75 points in total. The Texans defense has participated in 182 plays, ranking this team at 14th in professional football. The Texans are allowing 25.0 points per outing, putting them 19th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Cowboys-Texans NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Texans -2.5

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