Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 9/14/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Monday, September 14, 2026

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total-Over-Under: 42.5

Arrowhead Stadium is the location where the Kansas City Chiefs (6-11 last year) will attempt to defeat the Denver Broncos (14-3 last season) on Monday. Denver opens this matchup as 3-point underdogs. The over-under comes in at 42.5.

The Denver Broncos wrapped up their year having accrued a 14-3 mark. When they last stepped on the football field, the Broncos faced the New England Patriots and went home with a loss by a final score of 10-7. RJ Harvey was the rushing leader for the Broncos with 13 carries for 37 yards (2.8 yards per carry). Marvin Mims had an average of 15.5 yds per catch by notching 62 yards on 4 catches. Jarrett Stidham connected on 17-31 with 133 yds passing and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rating of 63 and walked away from the contest with 1 pick. When it came to stopping the run, the Broncos gave up 141 yds on 38 tries, which is an average of 3.7 yards per run allowed. Denver relinquished 10 completions on 21 attempts for a total of 65 yards, and a completion rate of 47.6%. In the game, they ran 55 plays which converted into 181 yds. The Denver Broncos ran the football 24 different times and totaled 79 yds, which is an average of 3.3 yds per carry.

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If you look at scoring points, the Broncos held an average of 23.6 points per contest. As a unit, they maintained an averaged of 118.7 running yards, which had them ranking 16th in professional football. The Broncos earned 5,825 yards last season. Denver earned 196 first downs as a unit, and they were called for 124 penalties for 1149 total yards. They surrendered the ball 17 times (11 interceptions and 6 fumbles). Denver compiled 25 touchdowns through the air and 18 ground TD's.

The Broncos were ranked 3rd in the NFL when analyzing opponents scoring, surrendering 18.3 points per contest. They gave up 3.9 yds per rushing attempt and 91.1 rushing yds per contest last season. If you examine pass yards, the Broncos granted 3,182 total yards which was 7th in the NFL. They surrendered 187.2 total yards per contest through the air, and gave up a completion% of 57.8%. Overall, they allowed 278.2 per game, which was 2nd in football. They allowed 18 TD's through the air, as well as 11 via the rush. Overall, they yielded 1,548 yards via the ground game in 17 outings for last year.

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The Chiefs ended the year having accrued a 6-11 mark. When they last took the field, the Chiefs took a defeat with a final score of 14-12 when they played the Las Vegas Raiders. Chris Oladokun ended the contest with 58 yds on 11-17 through the air while his quarterback rate was 70.2. He kept the ball away from the defense with no picks and his avg yards per attempt was 3.4 yards. Brashard Smith carried the rock 12 times for 56 yards, finishing the contest with 4.7 yds per attempt for Kansas City. Marquise Brown was the leading receiver for the Chiefs, grabbing 3 balls for 64 yards (21.3 yds per catch). Kansas City ran the ball for 3.7 yards per carry, finishing with a total of 84 yds on 23 attempts. The Chiefs finished the contest with 168 yds on 54 plays (3.1 yards per play). The Chiefs pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 42.3%, surrendering 86 yards on 11 out of 26 through the air. Kansas City relinquished 32 rushing attempts for 118 yards (3.7 yards per rush).

The Kansas City Chiefs held an average of 320.6 total yards per contest, which was 20th in the NFL. They had an average of 106.6 rushing yds per outing, and rushed for 1,812 yds. They relinquished 12 picks while yielding 3 lost fumbles, and compiled 189 1st downs as a team. The Kansas City offense conceded 951 yds by way of 119 penalty flags, which ranked them 7th in professional football when you look at helping out the opposition. Last season, the Chiefs had a previous total of 3,639 yards via the pass and held an average of 214.1 yards via the pass per game, which was 16th in football. If you're looking at their ability to score points, the Chiefs sat 21st in the NFL, holding an average of 21.3 points per contest.

The Chiefs allowed 19.3 points per game, which ranked them at 6th in pro football. They allowed 18 touchdowns by way of the pass and 195.8 pass yds per contest, which had them ranking 12th in football. Kansas City relinquished a total of 1,797 rushing yds (105.7 yds per outing), and 14 touchdowns via the rush for last year. The Chiefs defense participated in 992 plays from scrimmage, which was 5th in football. The defense accrued 14 takeaways (4 fumbles forced and 10 INTs) for last season. Overall, they conceded 328 pts.

Who will win tonight's Broncos-Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Chiefs -3.0

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