Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Chargers +3.5

Total-Over-Under: 42

The Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) will try to beat the Denver Broncos (2-2) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. Denver opens this matchup as 3.5-point favorites. The over-under comes in at 42.

The Denver Broncos head into this matchup 2-2 so far this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Broncos took the field against the San Francisco 49ers and took a loss by a final of 24-14. J.K. Dobbins led the offense in rushing for the Broncos with 11 attempts for 40 yds (3.6 yards per carry). RJ Harvey held an average of 6.8 yards per catch by earning 68 yards on 10 receptions. Bo Nix connected on 25-42 with 214 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rate of 80.9 and ended the contest without throwing an interception. In the running game, the Broncos conceded 140 yds on 35 attempts, which calculates to 4.0 yds per run surrendered. Denver surrendered 19 completions on 30 attempts for a total of 218 yds, and a completion rate of 63.3%. In all, they ran 64 plays which gave them 296 yards. The Denver Broncos ended up rushing 22 different times and totaled 82 yds, which had them averaging 3.7 yds per attempt.

When you look at putting points on the board, the Denver Broncos average 18.5 PPG. As a unit, they're holding an average of 81.3 rush yards which has them ranked 29th in pro football. The Broncos have a total of 1,121 total yards this year. Denver has attained 39 first downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 29 penalties for 187 yds. They have surrendered the football 5 different times (3 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost). If you look at scoring touchdowns, Denver has attained 5 touchdowns via the pass and 2 rushing touchdowns.

The Broncos currently rank 17th in football when analyzing their defensive abilities, surrendering 23.5 PPG. The opposition is running for 4.8 yds per running attempt and 142.8 rush yds per contest this year. When it comes to passing yards, the Broncos have yielded 929 total yards, which has them ranking 21st in pro football. They have allowed 232.3 yards per game by way of the pass, and are relinquishing a completion rate of 57.4%. Overall, they are conceding 375.0 yds per game, which has them ranked 28th in pro football. They have allowed 6 touchdowns by way of the pass, along with 4 touchdowns to rushers. In total, they have relinquished 571 yards via the ground game in 4 contests for the season.

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The Chargers step on the gridiron with a record of 0-4 for the season. In their last game, the Chargers walked away with a loss by a score of 30-23 against the Seattle Seahawks. Omarion Hampton carried the football 9 times for 45 yards, ending the contest with 5.0 yds per carry for Los Angeles. Tre Harris was the best receiver for the Chargers, bringing in 3 footballs for 60 yds (20.0 yds per catch). Justin Herbert (1 TD) ended the game with 189 yards on 19-31 through the air while his QB rating was 62.4. He tossed 2 interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.1 yds. Los Angeles surrendered 33 rush attempts for 138 yards (4.2 yards per carry). The Chargers secondary conceded a completion rate of 59.1%, surrendering 148 yards on 13 out of 22 passing. The Chargers finished the contest with a total of 301 yds on 64 plays (4.7 yds per play). Los Angeles rushed the football for 4.6 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 147 yards on 32 attempts.

The Los Angeles Chargers maintain an average of 306.8 total yards per contest, which is 21st in professional football. They maintain an average of 121.5 rushing yds per game, and have run for 486 total yards. They have a total of 6 interceptions while relinquishing 4 fumbles, and have been able to record 37 1st downs as a unit. The Los Angeles offense has surrendered 289 yards by way of 38 infractions, which has them ranked 4th in pro football if you analyze giving up free yards. In this campaign, the Chargers have earned 741 pass yards and have an average of 185.3 pass yards per game, giving them a rank of 24th in the league. If you analyze their scoring prowess, the Chargers currently sit 29th in the league, scoring 16.8 points per outing.

They have yielded 6 touchdowns by way of the pass along with 211.8 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 14th in pro football. Los Angeles has granted a total of 487 rushing yards (121.8 yds per outing), plus 6 touchdowns to runners this season. The D has collected 7 turnovers (3 forced fumbles and 4 picks) so far this year. Overall, they have given up 106 points. The Chargers defense has taken the field for 253 plays from the line of scrimmage, which is good for 19th in the league. The Chargers are yielding 26.5 PPG, putting them 24th in football.

Who will win tonight's Broncos-Chargers NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Chargers +3.5

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