Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, 10/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Buccaneers +3.5

Total-Over-Under: 39.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) welcome the Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. Green Bay opens this contest as 3.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 39.5.

The Green Bay Packers head into this matchup 1-2 for the season. In their last game, the Packers played against the Atlanta Falcons and took a loss by a final of 35-14. Jordan Love finished 28-53 with 312 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a QB rate of 75.4 and walked away from the game with 1 pick. MarShawn Lloyd was the leader on the ground for the Packers with 4 totes for 11 yards (2.8 yards per carry). Matthew Golden had an average of 20.0 yards per reception by totaling 100 yards on 5 receptions. The Green Bay Packers ran the ball a total of 9 different times and accrued 17 yds, which earned them an average of 1.9 yards per attempt. At the end of the game, they tallied 62 plays which gave them a total of 328 yards. Green Bay surrendered 18 pass completions on 25 attempts for 256 yards, and a completion rate of 72.0%. Against the run, the Packers gave up 242 yards on 41 attempts, which averages out to 5.9 yards per run allowed.

The Packers have notched 946 yds for the season. Green Bay has earned 39 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 32 infractions for 276 yards. When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, Green Bay has produced 6 touchdowns via the pass and no touchdowns via the ground. They have surrendered the ball 4 different times (2 INTs and 2 fumbles). As a unit, they're averaging 48.7 rush yds ranking this team at 32nd in professional football. If you examine putting points on the board, the NFC North representatives are averaging 18.7 points per outing.

Concerning passing yards, the Packers have yielded 606 total yards, putting them 11th in professional football. They have yielded 202.0 total yards per contest through the air, and are yielding a completion% of 66.7%. Altogether, they have yielded 416 rushing yards through 3 contests over the course of this season. They have surrendered 5 touchdowns through the air, along with 6 touchdowns by way of the ground game. On the whole, they are allowing 340.7 yds per contest, putting them 21st in the league. The opposition is running for an average of 4.1 yards per running attempt and 138.7 rush yds per contest over the course of the season. The Packers are ranked 29th in football regarding their opponents scoring, conceding 30.3 PPG.

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The Buccaneers step on the gridiron with a record of 0-3 over the course of the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Buccaneers took a defeat with a final score of 23-16 against the Minnesota Vikings. Bucky Irving ran the football 15 times for 46 yards, walking away from the game with 3.1 yards per carry for Tampa Bay. Emeka Egbuka was a featured target for the Buccaneers, catching 5 throws for 62 yds (12.4 yds per catch). Baker Mayfield (1 TD) walked away from the game with 217 yards on 17-34 through the air while his quarterback rating was 67.9. He threw 1 pick and his average yds per pass attempt was 6.4 yards. Tampa Bay conceded 23 attempts on the ground for 78 yds (3.4 yds per rush). The Buccaneers secondary conceded a completion percentage of 51.7%, relinquishing 152 yards on 15 for 29 through the air. The Buccaneers ended up finishing with 243 yards and they ran 58 plays (4.2 yds per play). Tampa Bay rushed for 2.7 yds per carry, finishing the game with 57 yards on 21 carries.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold an average of 279.3 yards per game, ranking this team at 27th in professional football. They hold an average of 94.3 rush yds per contest, and have rushed for 283 yards. They have recorded 3 picks while relinquishing 4 fumbles lost, and have been able to record 26 1st downs as a team. The Tampa Bay offense has conceded 182 yards by way of 22 infractions, ranking this team at 15th in professional football if you analyze giving up free yards. So far this year, the Buccaneers have a total of 555 pass yards and are averaging 185.0 pass yards per game, ranking this team at 26th in professional football. Concerning their scoring prowess, the Buccaneers are 19th in football, maintaining an average of 20.7 points per game.

The Buccaneers are conceding 26.3 points per outing, which ranks them 23rd in football. They have allowed 4 touchdowns via the pass along with 206.7 pass yards per game, ranking this team at 12th in professional football. Tampa Bay has yielded a total of 228 rushing yards (76.0 total yards per game), plus 1 touchdown via the rush so far this season. The Buccaneers defense has taken part in 173 plays from scrimmage, which ranks them 9th in football. Their defense has accrued 2 takeaways over the course of this season. In total, they have relinquished 79 total points.

Who will win tonight's Packers-Buccaneers NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Buccaneers +3.5

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