Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Prediction, 1/18/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-3)

Total-Over-Under: 40.5

Gillette Stadium is the place where the New England Patriots (14-3) will take on the Houston Texans (12-5) on Sunday in an AFC Divisional Playoff game. Houston is 3-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 40.5.

The Houston Texans head into this matchup 12-5 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Texans faced off with the Pittsburgh Steelers and went home with a win by a final score of 30-6. C.J. Stroud went 21-32 with 250 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a QB rating of 86.7 and ended the game with 1 interception. Christian Kirk had an average of 18.0 yards per catch by accounting for 144 yards on 8 receptions. Woody Marks led the offense in rushing for the Texans with 19 totes for 112 yards (5.9 yards per carry). At the end of the game, they ran 63 plays which totaled 408 yards. The Houston Texans ended up rushing 31 different times and accounted for 164 yards, which is an average of 5.3 yds per carry. In the running game, the Texans conceded 63 yards on 18 attempts, which averages out to 3.5 yards per run allowed. Houston allowed 18 pass completions on 34 tries for a total of 112 yds, and a completion percentage of 52.9%.

If you examine getting the ball in the endzone, the AFC representatives are averaging 23.8 points per contest. As a team, they're sitting at 108.9 rushing yards giving them a rank of 22nd in the league. The Texans have accrued 5,559 yards on the campaign. Houston has amassed 184 1st downs as a team, and they have been hurt by 118 penalties for 989 yards. They have given the ball away 12 times (9 picks and 3 fumbles). Regarding getting the ball into the endzone, Houston has earned 24 passing touchdowns and 9 touchdowns via the ground.

The Texans are ranked 2nd in the league regarding the opposition scoring, granting 17.4 points per outing. They are giving up 4.0 yards per run and 93.7 rushing yards per game so far this season. When examining pass yds, the Texans have surrendered 3,120 yards, giving them a rank of 6th in the NFL. They have granted 183.5 yds per game by way of the pass, and are giving up a completion rate of 59.3%. Overall, they are allowing 277.2 yds per game, ranking this team at 1st in pro football. They have yielded 20 touchdowns via the pass, and 13 touchdowns to runners. Overall, they have yielded 1,593 rushing yards through 17 matchups this year.

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The Patriots come into this game with a record of 14-3 over the course of this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Patriots went home victorious with a score of 16-3 when they played the Los Angeles Chargers. Drake Maye (1 touchdown) finished the contest with 268 yards on 17-29 passing while his quarterback rate was 86.6. He tossed 1 pick and his avg yards per attempt was 9.2 yds. Drake Maye carried the ball 10 times for 66 yds, walking away from the contest with 6.6 yds per carry for New England. Kayshon Boutte was one of the featured targets for the Patriots, hauling in 4 balls for 66 yds (16.5 yds per catch). New England rushed the ball for 5.0 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 146 yards on 29 attempts. The Patriots finished the contest with a total of 381 yds and they ran 59 plays (6.5 yards per play). The Patriots secondary allowed a completion rate of 61.3%, surrendering 120 yds on 19 out of 31 passing. New England gave up 22 rush attempts for 87 yds (4.0 yards per carry).

The New England Patriots hold an average of 379.4 total yards per contest, which is 3rd in professional football. They maintain an average of 128.9 rushing yds per contest, and have toted the ball for 2,191 yds. They have compiled 8 picks while conceding 8 lost fumbles, and have tallied 206 first downs as a team. The New England offense has granted 854 yds by way of 99 violations, which has them ranking 26th in professional football when you look at helping out the other team. Over the course of this season, the Patriots sit at 4,258 pass yds and are sitting at 250.5 pass yds per contest, giving them a rank of 4th in the NFL. If you examine their scoring prowess, the Patriots are sitting 2nd in football, holding an average of 28.8 points per contest.

They have yielded 25 touchdowns via the pass and 193.5 yards through the air per contest, which is 9th in professional football. New England has conceded a total of 1,729 rushing yds (101.7 yds per contest), in addition to 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. Their defense has attained 19 takeaways (9 fumbles forced and 10 interceptions) so far this season. In total, they have surrendered 320 points. The Patriots defense has been on the field for 973 plays, ranking them 3rd in the league. The Patriots are relinquishing 18.8 PPG, giving them a rank of 4th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Texans-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Texans +3

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