Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, 1/12/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Date: Monday, January 12, 2026

Location: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: ESPN

Odds-Point Spread: Steelers (+3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 39.5

The Houston Texans (12-5) are on their way to Acrisure Stadium on Monday where they will attempt to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) in an AFC Wild Card game. Pittsburgh is 3.5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is 39.5.

The Houston Texans step on the gridiron holding a record of 12-5 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Texans faced the Indianapolis Colts and walked away with a win by a score of 38-30. C.J. Stroud connected on 14-23 with 169 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a QB rating of 97.9 and finished the contest without throwing a pick. British Brooks was the rushing leader for the Texans with 13 carries for 63 yards (4.8 yds per attempt). Xavier Hutchinson held an average of 16.8 yds per catch by tallying 84 yds on 5 catches. The Houston Texans ended up rushing 32 times and accrued 134 yards, which earned them an average of 4.2 yds per carry. In the game, they ran 64 plays which gave them a total of 339 yards. Houston gave up 22 pass completions on 35 tries for a total of 278 yards, and a completion rate of 62.9%. When it came to stopping the run, the Texans gave up 76 yds on 28 tries, which averages out to 2.7 yds per rush surrendered.

The Texans have compiled 5,559 yards on the season. Houston has amassed 184 1st downs offensively, and they have been called for 118 penalties for 989 yds. Concerning getting in the endzone, Houston has amassed 24 passing touchdowns and 9 ground TD's. They have given the ball away 12 times (9 INTs and 3 fumbles lost). Offensively, they average 108.9 rush yards giving them a rank of 22nd in pro football. If you examine scoring, the Texans are sitting at 23.8 PPG.

The Texans rank 2nd in the NFL when you look at opponents scoring, surrendering 17.4 points per contest. The opposition is running for an average of 4.0 yds per tote and 93.7 running yds per outing on the season. If you examine passing yds, the Texans have yielded 3,120 total yards, putting them 6th in professional football. They have conceded 183.5 yds per outing by way of the pass, and are allowing a completion rate of 59.3%. All in all, they are granting 277.2 yards per outing, which is good for 1st in professional football. They have conceded 20 touchdowns through the air, along with 13 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they have allowed 1,593 yards via the ground game in 17 matchups for the year.

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The Steelers step onto the field with a record of 10-7 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Steelers got the win with a final of 26-24 when they played the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Rodgers (1 touchdown) ended the contest with 294 yds on 31-47 passing while his quarterback rating was 90.2. He didn't toss any interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.3 yards. Kenneth Gainwell was a featured target for the Steelers, hauling in 8 footballs for 64 yds (8.0 yds per reception). Jaylen Warren carried the football 14 times for 66 yds, finishing the game with 4.7 yards per carry for Pittsburgh. The Steelers ended up finishing with 390 yards while running 71 plays (5.5 yards per play). Pittsburgh ran the ball for 4.2 yds per carry, totaling 100 yds on 24 carries. Pittsburgh relinquished 27 rush attempts for 137 yds (5.1 yards per rush). The Steelers pass defense gave up a completion rate of 61.1%, surrendering 222 yds on 11 out of 18 passing.

The Pittsburgh Steelers maintain an average of 305.6 yds per game, giving them a rank of 25th in pro football. They hold an average of 103.3 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 1,756 total yards. They have compiled 9 interceptions while granting 6 lost fumbles, and have tallied 160 first downs as a team. The Pittsburgh offense has granted 803 yards by way of 101 penalties, which is good for 23rd in professional football if you're looking at hurting your team. This year, the Steelers have compiled 3,440 yards via the pass and are sitting at 202.4 yards via the pass per contest, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. In terms of putting points on the board, the Steelers are sitting 15th in professional football, holding an average of 23.4 points per contest.

The Steelers are granting 22.8 points per contest, putting them 17th in professional football. They have allowed 30 touchdowns via the pass and 243.9 pass yds per outing, which ranks 29th in football. Pittsburgh has granted a total of 1,922 rushing yds (113.1 total yards per outing), and 10 touchdowns via the rush over the course of this year. The Steelers defense has participated in 1,112 plays from the line of scrimmage, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Their defense has amassed 27 takeaways (12 fumbles forced and 15 interceptions) on the campaign. Overall, they have allowed 387 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Texans-Steelers NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Steelers +3.5

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