Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Texans -6.5

Total-Over-Under: 38

The Houston Texans (0-4) are hitting the road to Nissan Stadium on Sunday where they will meet the Tennessee Titans (0-4). Houston opens this game as 6.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 38.

The Houston Texans come into this game holding a record of 0-4 on the campaign. In their last contest, the Texans faced the Dallas Cowboys and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 34-30. David Montgomery was the rushing leader for the Texans with 10 carries for 24 yds (2.4 yds per carry). Nico Collins averaged 16.9 yds per reception by recording 118 yds on 7 receptions. C.J. Stroud went 21-31 with 347 yds passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 126.7 and finished the game without throwing a pick. On the ground, the Texans gave up 75 yds on 25 attempts, which is 3.0 yards per rush allowed. Houston gave up 32 completions on 45 attempts for 324 yards, and a completion percentage of 71.1%. In the game, they ran 50 plays which converted into 397 yds. The Houston Texans ran the football 19 times and accumulated 62 yards, which is an average of 3.3 yards per tote.

If you look at getting the ball in the endzone, the group repping Houston have an average of 21.0 PPG. Collectively, they're averaging 79.0 running yards which is 30th in professional football. The Texans have produced 1,375 yards so far this year. Houston has accumulated 48 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 31 infractions for 293 total yards. They have coughed up the ball 2 different times. When you look at putting points on the board, Houston has accumulated 5 passing TD's and 4 TD's via the ground game.

If you analyze yards through the air, the Texans have relinquished 1,040 yards, which has them ranked 28th in pro football. They have allowed 260.0 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion rate of 68.1%. Overall, they have relinquished 335 rushing yards through 4 matchups so far this year. They have relinquished 6 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 5 touchdowns to rushers. Overall, they are giving up 343.8 total yards per game, giving them a rank of 20th in the league. They are giving up an average of 3.4 yards per rushing attempt and 83.8 rushing yds per game on the year. The Texans currently rank 26th in football when analyzing their defensive abilities, surrendering 27.3 PPG.

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The Titans step onto the field with a record of 0-4 this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Titans walked away with a loss by a score of 24-18 when they faced the Baltimore Ravens. Tony Pollard ran the ball 16 times for 48 yds, ending the game with 3.0 yards per attempt for Tennessee. Carnell Tate was one of the featured targets for the Titans, bringing in 9 passes for 145 yards (16.1 yds per catch). Cam Ward (1 TD) ended the game with 222 yds on 20-31 through the air while his quarterback rate was 83. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.2 yards. Tennessee relinquished 30 attempts on the ground for 112 yards (3.7 yards per carry). The Titans pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 79.3%, surrendering 272 yds on 23 out of 29 through the air. The Titans ended up finishing with 297 yds while running 57 plays (5.2 yards per play). Tennessee rushed the football for 3.3 yards per tote, finishing with 85 yards on 26 attempts.

The Tennessee Titans hold an average of 261.3 yards per contest, which has them ranked 32nd in pro football. They have an average of 89.0 rush yds per contest, and have rushed for 356 total yards. They have compiled 2 picks while allowing 3 fumbles lost, and have been able to record 35 first downs as a team. The Tennessee offense has granted 165 yds on 23 penalty flags, putting them 30th in football when analyzing helping out the other team. For the year, the Titans have a total of 689 yards via the pass and have an average of 172.3 yards via the pass per outing, putting them 29th in football. When you look at their ability to score points, the Titans rank 31st in the league, by tallying 13.8 PPG.

They have surrendered 4 touchdowns via the pass plus 209.8 yards via the pass per outing, putting them 13th in football. Tennessee has conceded a total of 491 rushing yds (122.8 yards per game), along with 4 touchdowns to rushers on the year. Their defense has produced 2 takeaways this year. Altogether, they have yielded 83 total points. The Titans defense has taken the field for 254 plays, which has them ranked 20th in the NFL. The Titans are giving up 20.8 points per contest, which has them ranked 9th in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Texans-Titans NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Texans -6.5

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