Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction, 1/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 18

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026

Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Texans (-10.5)

Total-Over-Under: 39

The Indianapolis Colts (8-8) are headed to NRG Stadium on Sunday where they will attempt to beat the Houston Texans (11-5). Indianapolis is 10.5-point underdogs. The over-under is 39.

The Indianapolis Colts step onto the field holding a record of 8-8 on the year. When they last took the field, the Colts took on the Jacksonville Jaguars and took a loss by a score of 23-17. Jonathan Taylor was the rushing leader for the Colts with 21 carries for 70 yds (3.3 yds per attempt). Tyler Warren had an average of 8.6 yds per catch by accounting for 43 yards on 5 receptions. Philip Rivers connected on 17-30 with 147 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rate of 66.9 and finished the contest with 1 pick. When it came to stopping the run, the Colts gave up 121 yards on 29 tries, which averages out to 4.2 yds per rush allowed. Indianapolis gave up 23 completions on 37 tries for 249 yards, and a completion rate of 62.2%. Once the final whistle blew, they had 53 plays which totaled 204 yds. The Indianapolis Colts ran the football 22 times and totaled 69 yards, which came out to an average of 3.1 yds per carry.

When talking about putting the ball in the endzone, the Indianapolis Colts are sitting at 27.3 points per contest. Offensively, they're holding an average of 120.7 rushing yards which ranks 14th in the league. The Colts have earned 5,526 total yards on the year. Indianapolis has earned 188 first downs as an offense, and they have committed 97 infractions for 789 total yards. They have surrendered the football 20 different times (13 interceptions and 7 fumbles lost). In terms of scoring touchdowns, Indianapolis has collected 23 passing TD's and 26 TD's via the ground game.

When examining passing yds, the Colts have allowed 4,010 yards, which has them ranking 31st in pro football. They have relinquished 250.6 yards per outing via the pass, and are giving up a completion% of 63.9%. On the whole, they have conceded 1,598 rushing yards through 16 contests over the course of this year. They have allowed 23 touchdowns by way of the pass, along with 15 touchdowns on the ground. Overall, they are conceding 350.5 yards per contest, which has them ranking 24th in pro football. They are giving up an average of 3.8 yards per rush on the ground and 99.9 rush yards per game over the course of this year. The Colts sit 19th in pro football regarding opponents scoring, allowing 23.4 PPG.

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The Texans step on the gridiron with a record of 11-5 so far this year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Texans got the victory with a final of 20-16 against the Los Angeles Chargers. C.J. Stroud (2 touchdowns) walked away from the contest with 244 yards on 16-28 through the air while his quarterback rate was 80.1. He had 2 picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 8.7 yards. Nico Collins was the best receiver for the Texans, hauling in 3 balls for 57 yds (19.0 yds per catch). Woody Marks carried the football 19 times for 71 yards, walking away from the game with 3.7 yards per carry for Houston. The Texans finished the game with 362 yards while they ran 62 plays (5.8 yards per play). Houston rushed for 3.5 yards per tote, finishing with 118 yards on 34 attempts. Houston allowed 22 attempts on the ground for 74 yds (3.4 yards per rush). The Texans passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 65.6%, relinquishing 201 yds on 21 out of 32 passing.

The Houston Texans have an average of 326.3 total yards per game, ranking this team at 20th in football. They have an average of 107.4 running yds per contest, and have carried the football for 1,718 yards. They have thrown 9 INTs while conceding 3 fumbles, and have been able to tally 175 first downs as a team. The Houston offense has surrendered 912 total yards by way of 111 penalties, ranking this team at 10th in football if you look at making mistakes. For the season, the Texans have thrown for a total of 3,502 pass yds and are averaging 218.9 pass yds per outing, which ranks 16th in the league. When examining their ability to score points, the Texans are sitting 16th in pro football, maintaining an average of 22.9 PPG.

They have granted 18 touchdowns through the air along with 177.6 passing yards per outing, giving them a rank of 4th in football. Houston has surrendered a total of 1,517 rushing yds (94.8 total yards per game), in addition to 12 touchdowns via the ground game over the course of this season. The defense has earned 26 takeaways (8 fumbles forced and 18 INTs) so far this year. Overall, they have allowed 265 pts. The Texans defense has been on the field for 921 plays from scrimmage, ranking this team at 4th in football. The Texans are conceding 16.6 points per outing, ranking this team at 1st in football.

Who will win tonight's Colts-Texans NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Texans -10.5

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