Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 11/15/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 10

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total-Over-Under: 45

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is the site where the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) will compete against the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) on Sunday. Kansas City is 3-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total comes in at 45.

The Kansas City Chiefs step on the gridiron 6-2 so far this year. When they last took the field, the Chiefs stepped onto the field against the New York Jets and notched a win by a score of 35-12. Patrick Mahomes connected on 23-31 with 242 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a QB rate of 117.9 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Kenneth Walker III led the offense in rushing for the Chiefs with 18 carries for 102 yards (5.7 yds per carry). Xavier Worthy averaged 8.0 yards per reception by tallying 48 yds on 6 catches. The Kansas City Chiefs ran the ball 32 different times and totaled 163 yards, earning them an average of 5.1 yds per carry. For the game, they had 63 plays for 391 yds. Kansas City relinquished 18 completions on 32 attempts for a total of 123 yards, and a completion rate of 56.3%. Against the rush, the Chiefs conceded 106 yards on 25 attempts, which is an average of 4.2 yds per run surrendered.

The Chiefs have tallied 3,073 yards on the season. Kansas City has racked up 94 1st downs as a team, and they have been flagged for 55 infractions for 484 total yards. If you examine getting in the endzone, Kansas City has tallied 14 touchdowns through the air and 10 TD's via the ground game. They have given the ball to the opposition 7 times (4 picks and 3 fumbles). Offensively, they're averaging 137.8 running yards which has them ranked 5th in football. When talking about getting the ball into the endzone, the AFC members are sitting at 25.3 points per game.

When you look at pass yards, the Chiefs have relinquished 1,683 total yards, which is good for 4th in the NFL. They have relinquished 210.4 total yards per contest by way of the pass, and are conceding a completion percentage of 61.6%. In total, they have allowed 780 rushing yards through 8 matchups so far this season. They have given up 7 touchdowns through the air, and 5 touchdowns via the rush. In total, they are conceding 307.9 yds per outing, which is good for 8th in the league. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.6 yards per run and 97.5 rushing yards per game for this campaign. The Chiefs currently sit 3rd in football in terms of their defensive abilities, surrendering 17.9 points per game.

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The Falcons step on the gridiron with a record of 3-6 on the season. When they last took the field, the Falcons took a loss by a final score of 34-17 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Michael Penix (1 touchdown) ended the game with 162 yds on 20-31 passing while his quarterback rating was 74.9. He threw 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.2 yds. Bijan Robinson ran the football 19 times for 100 yards, ending the contest with 5.3 yards per carry for Atlanta. Bijan Robinson had the best day in terms of receiving for the Falcons, catching 6 balls for 47 yds (7.8 yds per catch). Atlanta rushed the football for 6.5 yds per carry, finishing the game with 157 yds on 24 carries. The Falcons finished the game with a total of 319 yds and they ran 55 plays (5.8 yds per play). The Falcons secondary gave up a completion rate of 82.8%, surrendering 265 yards on 24 for 29 through the air. Atlanta allowed 24 rush attempts for 123 yards (5.1 yards per rush).

The Atlanta Falcons have an average of 322.7 total yards per contest, which is good for 21st in professional football. They maintain an average of 137.2 rushing yards per game, and have run for 1,235 total yards. They have thrown 12 INTs while conceding 5 lost fumbles, and have obtained 74 first downs as an offense. The Atlanta offense has granted 538 yards on 60 violations, which has them sitting 20th in the league when examining hurting your team. So far this year, the Falcons have thrown for 1,669 passing yards and have an average of 185.4 passing yards per game, which is 25th in football. Regarding their scoring prowess, the Falcons are ranked 23rd in the league, averaging 20.9 points per contest.

They have allowed 14 touchdowns through the air as well as 228.0 yards via the pass per outing, which is good for 20th in the league. Atlanta has relinquished a total of 1,069 running yds (118.8 yards per contest), in addition to 10 touchdowns to runners on the season. Their defense has tallied 10 takeaways (7 forced fumbles and 3 interceptions) over the course of the season. On the whole, they have conceded 223 points in total. The Falcons defense has participated in 580 plays from scrimmage, putting them 29th in professional football. The Falcons are granting 24.8 PPG, putting them 21st in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Chiefs -3.0

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