Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 9/27/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 3

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins +10.5

Total-Over-Under: 45.5

The Miami Dolphins (0-2) will try to beat the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Kansas City opens this contest as 10.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 45.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs step onto the field holding a record of 2-0 over the course of this season. In their last contest, the Chiefs stepped onto the field against the Indianapolis Colts and walked away with a win by a score of 33-30. Patrick Mahomes went 32-47 with 382 yards through the air and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rate of 114 and finished the contest with no picks. Travis Kelce left with an average of 11.2 yards per reception by tallying 101 yds on 9 receptions. Kenneth Walker III was the rushing leader for the Chiefs with 24 totes for 117 yds (4.9 yards per attempt). When the final whistle blew, they ran 76 plays which gave them a total of 523 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs ended up rushing 29 times and amassed 152 yds, which came out to an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. Against the run, the Chiefs conceded 119 yds on 32 tries, which calculates to 3.7 yds per rush surrendered. Kansas City conceded 22 completions on 31 attempts for 210 yds, and a completion percentage of 71.0%.

The Chiefs have accumulated 915 total yards for the season. Kansas City has accumulated 26 first downs as a team, and they have been called for 15 penalties for 146 total yards. When it comes to notching touchdowns, Kansas City has recorded 5 touchdowns through the air and 2 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball 1 time. As a team, they're maintaining an average of 186.0 rushing yards which has them sitting 2nd in football. When examining scoring touchdowns, the Chiefs are averaging 32.0 PPG.

If you examine pass yds, the Chiefs have granted 325 yds, giving them a rank of 4th in football. They have given up 162.5 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion rate of 66.1%. In total, they have conceded 180 yards via the running game in 2 games for this campaign. They have conceded 2 touchdowns via the pass, and 2 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they are yielding 252.5 yards per outing, which is 3rd in football. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground and 90.0 running yds per game for the year. The Chiefs are ranked 11th in the NFL when you look at their opponents scoring, granting 20.0 points per game.

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The Dolphins come into this game with a record of 0-2 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins took a defeat with a final score of 35-13 against the San Francisco 49ers. De'Von Achane carried the rock 20 times for 74 yards, ending the contest with 3.7 yds per carry for Miami. Ryan Miller was the leading receiver for the Dolphins, grabbing 1 balls for 77 yds (77.0 yds per reception). Malik Willis (1 TD) walked away from the game with 197 yds on 14-23 through the air while his QB rating was 103. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his avg yards per attempt was 8.6 yards. Miami conceded 27 attempts on the ground for 95 yds (3.5 yards per rush). The Dolphins secondary conceded a completion rate of 90.9%, surrendering 287 yds on 20 for 22 passing. The Dolphins finished with a total of 284 yards on 52 plays (5.5 yds per play). Miami rushed for 3.5 yds per carry, finishing with a total of 102 yards on 29 carries.

When examining this team's ability to score points, the Dolphins are ranking 30th in football, by tallying 13.0 PPG. For the season, the Dolphins have thrown for 367 yards via the pass and are sitting at 183.5 yards via the pass per game, ranking this team at 24th in the NFL. They hold an average of 88.0 rushing yards per game, and have run for 176 yards. The Miami Dolphins average 271.5 total yards per contest, which is 27th in the league. The Miami offense has relinquished 111 total yards on 15 penalties, giving them a rank of 14th in the NFL regarding helping out the opposition. They have allowed 1 interception while conceding 1 fumble, and have been able to earn 15 1st downs as an offense.

The Dolphins are granting 31.0 PPG, which is 28th in the league. They have conceded 5 touchdowns via the pass and 223.5 pass yds per game, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Miami has granted a total of 225 rushing yards (112.5 total yards per contest), plus 3 touchdowns to runners on the season. The Dolphins defense has taken the field for 116 plays from the line of scrimmage, putting them 13th in the league. Their defense has a total of 2 turnovers so far this year. In total, they have conceded 62 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs-Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Dolphins +10.5

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