Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Raiders +4.0

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

Gillette Stadium is the place where the New England Patriots (2-2) will try to beat the Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) on Sunday. New England opens this game as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over-under is 44.5.

The Las Vegas Raiders head into this game 3-1 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Raiders played the Kansas City Chiefs and ended up losing by a score of 30-27. Kirk Cousins finished 31-52 with 365 yds through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 85.8 and walked away from the game with 1 pick. Ashton Jeanty was the rushing leader for the Raiders with 15 totes for 58 yds (3.9 yds per carry). Brock Bowers held an average of 14.3 yds per catch by tallying 86 yards on 6 receptions. The Las Vegas Raiders ended up rushing 26 times and totaled 72 yds, earning them an average of 2.8 yards per attempt. Once the final whistle blew, they ran 78 plays which gave them a total of 437 yds. Las Vegas allowed 15 pass completions on 30 attempts for a total of 210 yards, and a completion rate of 50.0%. In the running game, the Raiders gave up 189 yards on 26 attempts, which is an average of 7.3 yds per rush surrendered.

When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the AFC representatives are sitting at 28.8 points per game. Offensively, they're sitting at 93.0 rushing yards putting them 24th in football. The Raiders have earned 1,372 total yards for this campaign. Las Vegas has accumulated 56 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 23 infractions for 120 total yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 6 different times (4 picks and 2 fumbles lost). When you look at putting points on the board, Las Vegas has accumulated 11 passing TD's and 1 rushing touchdown.

The Raiders currently rank 11th in pro football when analyzing their defensive abilities, allowing 21.0 points per game. The opposition is running for 5.2 yds per running attempt and 134.5 rush yds per contest this year. With reference to passing yards, the Raiders have yielded 811 yds, which has them ranked 8th in pro football. They have granted 202.8 total yards per contest through the air, and are surrendering a completion% of 58.7%. Overall, they are giving up 337.3 total yards per game, giving them a rank of 19th in the league. They have relinquished 7 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 4 touchdowns to rushers. Overall, they have yielded 538 yards on the ground through 4 matchups on the campaign.

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The Patriots come into this game with a record of 2-2 so far this year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Patriots took home the win by a final score of 29-26 when they faced the Buffalo Bills. Drake Maye ran the football 8 times for 54 yds, ending the game with 6.8 yards per carry for New England. Hunter Henry was the leading receiver for the Patriots, hauling in 5 balls for 62 yards (12.4 yards per catch). Drake Maye (3 touchdowns) finished the game with 269 yards on 22-37 through the air while his QB rate was 97.7. He threw 1 interception and his avg yards per attempt was 7.3 yards. New England surrendered 20 rush attempts for 91 yards (4.6 yards per rush). The Patriots passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 69.7%, surrendering 249 yards on 23 out of 33 through the air. The Patriots finished the contest with a total of 405 yds on 72 plays (5.6 yards per play). New England ran the ball for 4.1 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 143 yards on 35 attempts.

If you look at their ability to score points, the Patriots currently rank 30th in football, maintaining an average of 16.3 PPG. So far this season, the Patriots have racked up 855 yards through the air and have an average of 213.8 yards through the air per contest, which has them ranked 17th in pro football. They maintain an average of 117.8 running yds per contest, and have carried the football for 471 yards. The New England Patriots maintain an average of 331.5 total yards per contest, which has them ranked 16th in the NFL. The New England offense has granted 184 total yards on 28 violations, which has them ranked 23rd in the NFL regarding helping out the other team. They have tossed 7 INTs while yielding 3 fumbles lost, and have tallied 38 1st downs offensively.

The Patriots are surrendering 19.3 PPG, which is good for 6th in the league. They have given up 5 touchdowns via the pass plus 189.8 pass yards per game, giving them a rank of 5th in the league. New England has yielded a total of 416 rushing yds (104.0 total yards per contest), and 4 touchdowns by way of the ground game for this campaign. The Patriots defense has participated in 229 plays, which has them ranking 4th in pro football. The D has tallied 5 turnovers (2 fumbles forced and 3 interceptions) this season. Overall, they have yielded 77 pts.

Who will win tonight's Raiders-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Raiders +4.0

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