Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction, 10/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins +11.5

Total-Over-Under: 38.5

The Minnesota Vikings (3-0) will play the Miami Dolphins (0-3) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. Miami opens this matchup as 11.5-point underdogs. The over-under comes in at 38.5.

The Miami Dolphins head into this game 0-3 this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins played against the Kansas City Chiefs and took a loss by a final of 24-10. Malik Willis was the leader on the ground for the Dolphins with 9 totes for 56 yards (6.2 yards per carry). Chris Bell averaged 16.8 yards per catch by tallying 67 yards on 4 catches. Malik Willis connected on 20-36 with 210 yards passing. He had a quarterback rate of 61.1 and ended the game with 1 interception. On the ground, the Dolphins conceded 88 yards on 25 tries, which averages out to 3.5 yards per run allowed. Miami conceded 20 completions on 24 attempts for 246 yards, and a completion rate of 83.3%. In all, they tallied 67 plays for 329 yards. The Miami Dolphins ended up rushing 31 different times and totaled 119 yards, earning them an average of 3.8 yards per attempt.

Concerning getting the ball into the endzone, the AFC members are averaging 12.0 points per game. As a team, they're holding an average of 98.3 running yds putting them 20th in the league. The Dolphins have compiled 872 total yards for this campaign. Miami has compiled 24 1st downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 23 infractions for 175 yards. They have surrendered the ball 4 different times (2 INTs and 2 fumbles). When analyzing putting points on the board, Miami has collected 1 passing touchdown and 2 running touchdowns.

The Dolphins sit 28th in pro football when analyzing opponents scoring, conceding 28.7 points per outing. The opposition is running for an average of 3.5 yards per running attempt and 104.3 rush yds per contest over the course of the season. With reference to passing yards, the Dolphins have yielded 693 total yards, ranking this team at 20th in professional football. They have granted 231.0 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion percentage of 80.3%. In total, they are allowing 335.3 total yards per game, ranking this team at 19th in pro football. They have relinquished 7 touchdowns through the air, and 4 touchdowns via the ground game. In total, they have yielded 313 rushing yards through 3 matchups over the course of this season.

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The Vikings come into this game with a record of 3-0 over the course of this season. In their last game, the Vikings walked away with a victory by a final of 23-16 when they played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Aaron Jones carried the football 17 times for 58 yds, finishing the game with 3.4 yards per attempt for Minnesota. Jordan Addison was one of the featured targets for the Vikings, catching 5 footballs for 90 yards (18.0 yds per catch). Kyler Murray (1 TD) ended the game with 168 yards on 15-29 passing while his QB rating was 66.5. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.8 yds. Minnesota relinquished 21 run attempts for 57 yds (2.7 yards per carry). The Vikings pass defense conceded a completion rate of 45.9%, surrendering 186 yds on 17 for 37 through the air. The Vikings ended up finishing with 230 yds while running 52 plays (4.4 yards per play). Minnesota ran the football for 3.4 yds per carry, finishing with a total of 78 yards on 23 carries.

The Minnesota Vikings hold an average of 238.3 yards per contest, which ranks them 32nd in football. They average 101.3 rush yards per contest, and have carried the football for 304 yds. They have compiled 2 picks while surrendering no lost fumbles, and have tallied 19 first downs. The Minnesota offense has relinquished 135 yards on 15 infractions, which has them sitting 32nd in football regarding helping out the opposition. So far this year, the Vikings have compiled 411 pass yards and average 137.0 pass yards per contest, putting them 32nd in the league. With reference to their scoring prowess, the Vikings rank 16th in pro football, by scoring 23.7 points per game.

They have allowed 3 touchdowns via the pass along with 234.0 pass yards per game, ranking this team at 22nd in professional football. Minnesota has surrendered a total of 257 running yards (85.7 total yards per outing), along with no touchdowns to runners on the campaign. The D has recorded 6 takeaways (2 fumbles forced and 4 picks) on the season. In total, they have granted 41 points in total. The Vikings defense has participated in 201 plays, ranking this team at 30th in professional football. The Vikings are conceding 13.7 points per contest, ranking this team at 2nd in professional football.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins-Vikings NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Dolphins +11.5

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