Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, 1/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 18

Game: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-10.5)

Total-Over-Under: 45.5

Gillette Stadium is the site where the New England Patriots (13-3) will try to defeat the Miami Dolphins (7-9) on Sunday. Miami opens as 10.5-point dogs. The total is set at 45.5.

The Miami Dolphins come into this game holding a record of 7-9 over the course of the season. In their last game, the Dolphins faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and went home with a win by a final score of 20-17. Quinn Ewers went 14-22 with 172 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 118 and walked away from the game without throwing an interception. Greg Dulcich had an average of 11.6 yards per reception by tallying 58 yards on 5 receptions. De'Von Achane was the rushing leader for the Dolphins with 18 carries for 83 yards (4.6 yards per carry). In all, they ran 52 plays for 298 yards. The Miami Dolphins ran the ball a total of 30 different times and accrued 145 yards, which had them averaging 4.8 yards per tote. When it came to stopping the run, the Dolphins gave up 53 yds on 16 attempts, which is an average of 3.3 yds per run allowed. Miami gave up 33 pass completions on 44 attempts for 327 yds, and a completion percentage of 75.0%.

The Dolphins have collected 4,932 yards on the campaign. Miami has tallied 167 first downs, and they have been hurt by 94 infractions for 759 yds. In terms of scoring touchdowns, Miami has collected 22 passing TD's and 14 TD's via the ground game. They have turned the ball over 22 different times (17 interceptions and 5 fumbles). Offensively, they're maintaining an average of 123.8 rush yards giving them a rank of 10th in football. When talking about getting the ball into the endzone, the group repping Miami are averaging 21.1 PPG.

When talking about passing yards, the Dolphins have conceded 3,464 total yards, which has them ranked 18th in pro football. They have conceded 216.5 total yards per game via the pass, and are giving up a completion% of 71.8%. On the whole, they have conceded 2,008 rushing yards through 16 contests over the course of this year. They have allowed 28 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 14 touchdowns via the ground game. In total, they are granting 342.0 yds per game, which ranks 21st in professional football. They are giving up an average of 4.6 yards per rush on the ground and 125.5 rush yards per game over the course of this year. The Dolphins are ranking 21st in professional football concerning team defense, yielding 24.1 points per contest.

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The Patriots head into this matchup 13-3 over the course of the season. In their last game, the Patriots walked away with a victory by a final of 42-10 against the New York Jets. TreVeyon Henderson ran the football 19 times for 82 yds, walking away from the contest with 4.3 yards per attempt for New England. Stefon Diggs had the best day in terms of receiving for the Patriots, grabbing 6 throws for 101 yards (16.8 yards per catch). Drake Maye (5 touchdowns) ended the game with 256 yards on 19-21 through the air while his QB rate was 157. He didn't toss any interceptions and his Y-A was 12.2 yards. New England gave up 28 running attempts for 164 yards (5.9 yds per carry). The Patriots pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 58.8%, relinquishing 143 yards on 20 out of 34 through the air. The Patriots ended up finishing with 440 yards and they ran 61 plays (7.2 yds per play). New England ran for 4.3 yds per carry, totaling 155 yards on 36 attempts.

When talking about the points being put on the board, the Patriots are sitting 5th in football, holding an average of 28.3 points per outing. For the season, the Patriots have earned 4,044 passing yds and are sitting at 252.8 passing yds per contest, which has them ranking 3rd in pro football. They have an average of 121.8 running yds per contest, and have carried the football for 1,948 yards. The New England Patriots have an average of 374.5 total yards per outing, which ranks 4th in the league. The New England offense has surrendered 802 yards by way of 95 infractions, which ranks 25th in pro football with reference to hurting your team. They have recorded 8 interceptions while surrendering 8 fumbles lost, and have been able to earn 198 first downs offensively.

The Patriots are relinquishing 19.4 PPG, giving them a rank of 5th in pro football. They have granted 24 touchdowns through the air and 198.3 pass yds per outing, which ranks 10th in the league. New England has surrendered a total of 1,666 rushing yards (104.1 total yards per game), in addition to 11 touchdowns via the ground game over the course of the season. The Patriots defense has participated in 919 plays from scrimmage, giving them a rank of 3rd in pro football. The defense has accumulated 17 takeaways (8 fumbles forced and 9 interceptions) over the course of this season. On the whole, they have conceded 310 pts.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Dolphins +10.5

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