Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Saints +1.5

Total-Over-Under: 41.5

The New Orleans Saints (1-3) welcome the Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at Caesars Superdome on Sunday. Minnesota opens this game as 1.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is set at 41.5.

The Minnesota Vikings head into this game 4-0 this season. The last time they took the field, the Vikings stepped onto the field against the Miami Dolphins and notched a win by a score of 15-10. Kyler Murray went 27-37 with 247 yards passing. He had a QB rating of 90.7 and walked away from the contest with no picks. Aaron Jones was the leader on the ground for the Vikings with 20 totes for 94 yds (4.7 yards per attempt). T.J. Hockenson averaged 9.2 yards per catch by totaling 119 yds on 13 receptions. The Minnesota Vikings ended up rushing 31 different times and totaled 123 yards, which came out to an average of 4.0 yards per carry. When the final whistle blew, they had 68 plays for 336 yards. Minnesota conceded 9 completions on 17 tries for 77 yards, and a completion rate of 52.9%. In the running game, the Vikings conceded 121 yards on 18 attempts, which is an average of 6.7 yards per run surrendered.

The Vikings have notched 1,051 yards for the season. Minnesota has compiled 32 first downs as a team, and they have been hurt by 26 penalties for 220 yards. When you look at putting points on the board, Minnesota has accumulated 4 passing TD's and 2 TD's via the ground game. They have surrendered the ball 2 different times. Collectively, they're averaging 106.8 running yards which is 16th in professional football. If you look at getting the ball in the endzone, the NFC North representatives have an average of 21.5 PPG.

When it comes to passing yards, the Vikings have yielded 779 total yards, which has them ranking 7th in pro football. They have allowed 194.8 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion rate of 51.1%. In total, they have relinquished 378 yards via the ground game in 4 contests for the season. They have yielded 3 touchdowns by way of the pass, and 1 touchdown by way of the ground game. Altogether, they are giving up 289.3 total yards per contest, which has them ranked 5th in the NFL. They are giving up 4.2 yds per rush and 94.5 rushing yards per outing this season. The Vikings currently rank 1st in the league concerning opponents scoring, conceding 12.8 PPG.

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The Saints step on the gridiron with a record of 1-3 for this campaign. The last time they took the field, the Saints went home defeated by a final of 45-24 against the Atlanta Falcons. Tyler Shough (1 TD) finished the contest with 286 yds on 30-48 passing while his quarterback rating was 85.9. He didn't toss any picks and his average yds per pass attempt was 6.0 yards. Chris Olave was featured in the passing game for the Saints, snagging 8 passes for 116 yards (14.5 yards per catch). Alvin Kamara ran the ball 7 times for 23 yds, walking away from the contest with 3.3 yds per attempt for New Orleans. The Saints ended up finishing with 320 yards while running 67 plays (4.8 yards per play). New Orleans ran the ball for 2.6 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 50 yds on 19 carries. New Orleans gave up 35 running attempts for 205 yds (5.9 yds per rush). The Saints pass defense gave up a completion rate of 75.0%, surrendering 215 yds on 15 out of 20 passing.

The New Orleans Saints maintain an average of 367.0 total yards per contest, which is 9th in professional football. They average 88.5 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 354 yds. They have compiled 3 interceptions while granting 5 lost fumbles, and have been able to earn 61 1st downs as an offense. The New Orleans offense has yielded 173 total yards on 27 penalties, which has them ranking 25th in pro football when analyzing giving up free yards. So far this season, the Saints have racked up 1,114 yards through the air and have an average of 278.5 yards through the air per contest, which has them ranked 4th in pro football. If you analyze their scoring prowess, the Saints currently sit 11th in the league, scoring 26.3 points per outing.

The Saints are allowing 32.0 points per outing, ranking them 32nd in the league. They have granted 7 touchdowns through the air as well as 212.5 pass yds per contest, which has them ranked 15th in pro football. New Orleans has surrendered a total of 591 rushing yds (147.8 total yards per game), plus 9 touchdowns to runners on the season. The Saints defense has participated in 248 plays from scrimmage, which has them ranked 17th in pro football. The D has earned 3 turnovers (2 fumbles forced and 1 interception) on the campaign. Altogether, they have allowed 128 pts.

Who will win tonight's Vikings-Saints NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Saints +1.5

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