New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Prediction, 1/25/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026

Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Broncos (+5)

Total-Over-Under: 42

The New England Patriots (14-3) are headed to Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday where they will take on the Denver Broncos (14-3) in the AFC Championship game. Denver is 5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The total has been set at 42.

In the AFC Divisional round, the Patriots played the Houston Texans and went home with a win by a final score of 28-16. Rhamondre Stevenson led the offense in rushing for the Patriots with 16 attempts for 70 yds (4.4 yards per carry). Stefon Diggs left with an average of 10.0 yards per reception by accounting for 40 yds on 4 catches. Drake Maye went 16-27 with 179 yards through the air and 3 TDs. He had a QB rating of 100.7 and finished the game with 1 pick. In the running game, the Patriots conceded 48 yards on 22 attempts, which calculates to 2.2 yds per run allowed. New England gave up 20 pass completions on 47 attempts for a total of 193 yds, and a completion percentage of 42.6%. When all was said and done, they ran 59 plays which gave them 248 yards. The New England Patriots rushed the ball a total of 32 times and recorded 105 yards, which came out to an average of 3.3 yards per attempt.

The Patriots currently have 6,449 yds on the season. New England has compiled 206 first downs as a team, and they have committed 99 penalties for 854 yds. If you examine getting in the endzone, New England has amassed 31 passing TD's and 22 TD's on the ground. They have turned the football over 16 different times (8 picks and 8 fumbles). As a unit, they hold an average of 128.9 rushing yds ranking this team at 6th in pro football. When analyzing getting the ball in the endzone, the Patriots hold an average of 28.8 PPG.

Concerning yards via the pass, the Patriots have given up 3,290 total yards, which is 9th in the NFL. They have given up 193.5 total yards per game by way of the pass, and are granting a completion% of 66.4%. All in all, they have granted 1,729 rushing yards through 17 matchups this season. They have yielded 25 touchdowns through the air, and 11 touchdowns to rushers. Altogether, they are giving up 295.2 yds per outing, which ranks them 8th in the league. They are allowing an average of 4.2 yds per attempt on the ground and 101.7 rushing yards per contest this year. The Patriots sit 4th in professional football if you analyze their defensive abilities, relinquishing 18.8 points per game.

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The last time they stepped on the gridiron in the AFC Divisional round, the Broncos walked away with a victory by a final of 33-30 when they played the Buffalo Bills. Bo Nix carried the ball 12 times for 29 yds, finishing the game with 2.4 yards per carry for Denver. Marvin Mims had the best day in terms of receiving for the Broncos, bringing in 8 throws for 93 yds (11.6 yards per reception). Bo Nix (3 touchdowns) ended the contest with 279 yds on 26-46 through the air while his quarterback rating was 87.1. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.1 yds. Denver gave up 36 running attempts for 183 yds (5.1 yds per rush). The Broncos passing defense gave up a completion rate of 64.1%, surrendering 266 yds on 25 for 39 passing. The Broncos finished the contest with a total of 349 yards on 68 plays (5.1 yds per play). Denver ran the football for 3.2 yards per carry, finishing the game with 70 yards on 22 carries.

If you analyze their scoring prowess, the Broncos rank 14th in football, by tallying 23.6 points per contest. For the year, the Broncos have a total of 3,807 passing yds and have an average of 223.9 passing yds per contest, ranking this team at 11th in pro football. They maintain an average of 118.7 running yards per outing, and have run for 2,018 yds. The Denver Broncos average 342.6 total yards per game, which is 10th in the NFL. The Denver offense has conceded 1,149 yds by way of 124 penalties, which ranks them 5th in the league when talking about helping out the other team. They have compiled 11 picks while surrendering 6 fumbles, and have been able to earn 196 1st downs as a unit.

The Broncos are surrendering 18.3 points per contest, ranking this team at 3rd in pro football. They have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air in addition to 187.2 yards through the air per contest, which is 7th in football. Denver has conceded a total of 1,548 rush yds (91.1 yards per contest), in addition to 11 touchdowns via the rush this season. The Broncos defense has taken part in 1,061 plays from scrimmage, which ranks 21st in professional football. Their defense has tallied 14 turnovers (4 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions) this season. Overall, they have given up 311 total points.

Who will win tonight's Patriots-Broncos NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Patriots -5

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