New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, 9/27/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 3

Game: New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Jaguars -3.0

Total-Over-Under: 45

The New England Patriots (1-1) are on their way to EverBank Stadium on Sunday where they will play the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1). New England opens this contest as 3-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 45.

The New England Patriots head into this game 1-1 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Patriots went up against the Pittsburgh Steelers and took home the win by a score of 20-3. Drake Maye finished 14-22 with 208 yards passing. He had a quarterback rating of 75.6 and ended the game with 1 interception. Romeo Doubs averaged 32.0 yards per catch by accumulating 96 yds on 3 catches. TreVeyon Henderson was the rushing leader for the Patriots with 16 attempts for 76 yards (4.8 yds per carry). On the day, they tallied 50 plays for 327 yards. The New England Patriots ended up rushing 28 different times and recorded 136 yds, which earned them an average of 4.9 yds per carry. On the ground, the Patriots gave up 91 yards on 23 tries, which calculates to 4.0 yards per run surrendered. New England surrendered 23 pass completions on 40 attempts for 144 yds, and a completion rate of 57.5%.

If you analyze putting the ball in the endzone, the group who plays in New England are sitting at 15.0 points per game. As a team, they are averaging 122.5 rushing yards giving them a rank of 10th in the NFL. The Patriots currently have 604 total yards for this campaign. New England has attained 15 first downs offensively, and they have been flagged for 13 penalties for 81 yards. They have surrendered the football 5 different times (4 INTs and 1 fumble). With reference to getting the ball in the endzone, New England has collected 1 passing touchdown and 1 rushing touchdown.

If you look at passing yds, the Patriots have conceded 332 total yards, giving them a rank of 5th in the NFL. They have given up 166.0 yards per outing by way of the pass, and are allowing a completion rate of 62.5%. All in all, they have conceded 188 yards via the running game in 2 contests on the year. They have relinquished 1 touchdown through the air, but no TD's to rushers. Overall, they are yielding 260.0 yards per outing, which is 4th in football. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground and 94.0 running yds per game for the year. The Patriots are ranking 1st in football if you examine the other team scoring points, yielding 8.0 PPG.

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The Jaguars step on the gridiron with a record of 1-1 for the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Jaguars took a loss by a final score of 20-13 against the Denver Broncos. Trevor Lawrence finished the game with 189 yards on 17-29 through the air while his QB rating was 63.7. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.5 yds. Parker Washington was a featured target for the Jaguars, bringing in 7 passes for 98 yards (14.0 yards per catch). Bhayshul Tuten carried the rock 13 times for 65 yards, walking away from the game with 5.0 yards per attempt for Jacksonville. The Jaguars finished the contest with a total of 268 yds while they ran 53 plays (5.1 yds per play). Jacksonville ran the football for 4.0 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 95 yards on 24 attempts. Jacksonville allowed 28 attempts on the ground for 104 yards (3.7 yds per rush). The Jaguars secondary gave up a completion percentage of 71.0%, relinquishing 288 yds on 22 out of 31 through the air.

The Jacksonville Jaguars maintain an average of 314.0 yds per contest, which has them sitting 15th in football. They maintain an average of 110.5 rushing yards per contest, and have run for 221 yds. They have thrown 1 interception while conceding no fumbles lost, and have obtained 21 first downs as an offense. The Jacksonville offense has granted 65 yards on 8 penalty flags, which is 31st in football if you examine helping out the opposition. On the campaign, the Jaguars have racked up 407 passing yds and are sitting at 203.5 passing yds per outing, ranking this team at 18th in the NFL. In terms of their scoring prowess, the Jaguars are ranked 15th in the league, by scoring 23.5 points per game.

They have conceded 2 touchdowns through the air as well as 236.5 passing yds per contest, giving them a rank of 22nd in the NFL. Jacksonville has granted a total of 191 rushing yards (95.5 total yards per contest), plus 1 touchdown to runners on the season. The D has produced 3 takeaways (1 fumble and 2 INTs) over the course of this season. Overall, they have given up 30 total points. The Jaguars defense has taken the field for 108 plays from the line of scrimmage, putting them 3rd in the league. The Jaguars are giving up 15.0 points per outing, giving them a rank of 6th in football.

Who will win tonight's Patriots-Jaguars NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Jaguars -3.0

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