New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 11/1/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 8

Game: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Dolphins +7.0

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

The New England Patriots (4-3) are headed to Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday where they will try to defeat the Miami Dolphins (1-5). New England opens this matchup as 7-point favorites. The betting total is set at 44.5.

The New England Patriots head into this matchup 4-3 so far this year. In their last contest, the Patriots played the Chicago Bears and ended up losing by a score of 30-24. Drake Maye went 24-31 with 321 yards through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 117.8 and finished the game with 1 pick. Drake Maye was the rushing leader for the Patriots with 4 totes for 26 yds (6.5 yds per carry). Rhamondre Stevenson had an average of 18.6 yards per catch by notching 93 yds on 5 catches. The New England Patriots ended up rushing 17 different times and totaled 70 yards, which earned them an average of 4.1 yards per carry. In all, they ran 48 plays for 380 yds. New England conceded 22 pass completions on 33 tries for 289 yds, and a completion rate of 66.7%. On the ground, the Patriots gave up 116 yards on 30 tries, which is an average of 3.9 yds per run surrendered.

The Patriots have collected 2,625 yards over the course of this year. New England has attained 82 1st downs offensively, and they have been called for 55 penalties for 428 yards. If you analyze putting the ball in the endzone, New England has produced 13 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's. They have turned the football over 14 times (8 INTs and 6 lost fumbles). Collectively, they hold an average of 122.0 running yds ranking them 11th in the league. If you analyze scoring touchdowns, the AFC representatives hold an average of 22.9 points per contest.

When examining pass yards, the Patriots have allowed 1,543 yds, which is 19th in the NFL. They have conceded 220.4 total yards per outing via the pass, and are conceding a completion% of 66.2%. Altogether, they have conceded 667 rushing yards through 7 matchups so far this year. They have allowed 9 touchdowns by way of the pass, plus 6 touchdowns on the ground. Overall, they are granting 315.7 yards per contest, which is 10th in the NFL. They are allowing 3.9 yards per attempt on the ground and 95.3 rushing yds per outing so far this year. The Patriots rank 10th in football if you examine opponents scoring, allowing 20.4 points per contest.

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The Dolphins come into this game with a record of 1-5 on the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins got the victory with a final of 28-25 when they played the New York Jets. Malik Willis (2 TDs) finished the contest with 208 yds on 14-21 passing while his quarterback rating was 130.7. He didn't toss any interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 9.9 yds. Greg Dulcich was the leading receiver for the Dolphins, bringing in 5 throws for 86 yds (17.2 yds per reception). Ollie Gordon carried the ball 25 times for 103 yds, ending the game with 4.1 yds per carry for Miami. The Dolphins finished the game with 360 yds on 62 plays (5.8 yards per play). Miami rushed for 3.8 yards per carry, finishing the game with 156 yds on 41 carries. Miami gave up 21 rush attempts for 108 yds (5.1 yds per rush). The Dolphins passing defense gave up a completion rate of 76.7%, relinquishing 269 yards on 23 out of 30 through the air.

The Miami Dolphins maintain an average of 293.5 yards per outing, which ranks them at 27th in football. They have an average of 131.5 rushing yds per contest, and have carried the ball for 789 yards. They have a total of 4 picks while allowing 4 lost fumbles, and have tallied 45 first downs. The Miami offense has allowed 286 total yards on 44 penalties, which ranks 24th in football if you're looking at giving up free yards. For the year, the Dolphins have thrown for 972 yards via the pass and are sitting at 162.0 yards via the pass per contest, which is good for 30th in football. If you analyze putting points on the board, the Dolphins are ranked 30th in the league, with 16.3 points per contest.

The Dolphins are granting 26.2 points per outing, which is 25th in the NFL. They have given up 14 touchdowns by way of the pass in addition to 227.5 passing yards per outing, which is good for 19th in football. Miami has relinquished a total of 661 rushing yds (110.2 yards per contest), along with 4 touchdowns to rushers this year. The Dolphins defense has been on the field for 353 plays from the line of scrimmage, which ranks them at 3rd in football. The D has produced 5 takeaways (1 fumble and 4 INTs) over the course of this year. In total, they have yielded 157 total points.

Who will win tonight's Patriots-Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Dolphins +7.0

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