New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 1/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 17

Game: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Falcons (-3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 44

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is where the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) will go up against the New Orleans Saints (6-10) on Sunday. New Orleans opens as 3.5-point dogs. The total is 44.

The New Orleans Saints step on the gridiron 6-10 over the course of this season. In their last game, the Saints faced the Tennessee Titans and took home the win by a score of 34-26. Audric Estime was the best rusher for the Saints with 14 carries for 94 yds (6.7 yds per carry). Chris Olave had an average of 14.9 yards per catch by tallying 119 yards on 8 receptions. Tyler Shough went 22-27 with 333 yds through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 142.7 and walked away from the game without throwing an interception. In the running game, the Saints conceded 108 yds on 28 attempts, which averages out to 3.9 yards per rush surrendered. New Orleans conceded 21 pass completions on 40 tries for a total of 228 yds, and a completion percentage of 52.5%. On the day, they ran 50 plays for 423 yds. The New Orleans Saints ended up running the ball 23 different times and amassed 103 yds, which earned them an average of 4.5 yds per carry.

The Saints have earned 4,991 total yards on the year. New Orleans has amassed 173 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 112 infractions for 880 total yards. When talking about getting the ball in the endzone, New Orleans has attained 18 passing TD's and 8 TD's on the ground. They have turned the ball over 22 different times (11 interceptions and 11 fumbles). As a unit, they have an average of 93.4 rushing yds which ranks 30th in professional football. When talking about getting the ball in the endzone, the Saints average 18.1 points per outing.

With reference to pass yards, the Saints have relinquished 2,887 yards, which ranks 5th in pro football. They have granted 180.4 total yards per outing through the air, and are giving up a completion% of 64.1%. Altogether, they have granted 2,001 yards via the running game in 16 outings on the campaign. They have conceded 24 touchdowns by way of the pass, plus 12 touchdowns to runners. Altogether, they are allowing 305.5 total yards per game, which has them ranked 9th in pro football. They are giving up an average of 4.1 yards per rush on the ground and 125.1 rush yards per game over the course of this year. The Saints rank 16th in pro football regarding the opposition scoring, granting 22.8 points per outing.

Get all of our Free NFL Picks

The Falcons come into this matchup holding a record of 7-9 over the course of this year. In their last contest, the Falcons took home the win by a final score of 27-24 against the Los Angeles Rams. Bijan Robinson ran the ball 22 times for 195 yds, finishing the game with 8.9 yards per carry for Atlanta. Bijan Robinson was the leading receiver for the Falcons, grabbing 5 throws for 34 yds (6.8 yards per reception). Kirk Cousins (1 TD) finished the contest with 126 yards on 13-20 through the air while his quarterback rating was 99.2. He didn't toss any interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 6.3 yds. Atlanta gave up 20 attempts on the ground for 115 yards (5.8 yds per carry). The Falcons secondary gave up a completion rate of 57.9%, relinquishing 248 yds on 22 out of 38 passing. The Falcons finished the game with a total of 345 yards while they ran 53 plays (6.5 yds per play). Atlanta ended up running for 6.6 yards per tote, totaling 219 yds on 33 carries.

When talking about the points being put on the board, the Falcons are sitting 24th in football, holding an average of 20.9 points per outing. In this season, the Falcons have racked up 3,364 pass yards and have an average of 210.3 pass yards per game, which has them sitting 19th in professional football. They hold an average of 130.6 rushing yds per game, and have carried the ball for 2,089 total yards. The Atlanta Falcons average 340.8 yards per outing, which ranks 13th in pro football. The Atlanta offense has granted 777 yds on 103 penalties, which ranks 17th in professional football concerning making mistakes. They have thrown 7 INTs while conceding 10 fumbles, and have been able to tally 174 first downs as a team.

They have allowed 26 touchdowns by way of the pass plus 198.4 pass yards per contest, giving them a rank of 11th in pro football. Atlanta has surrendered a total of 2,038 running yds (127.4 yards per contest), along with 11 touchdowns on the ground for this campaign. The defense currently has 21 turnovers (6 fumbles forced and 15 interceptions) over the course of the season. In total, they have yielded 384 points. The Falcons defense has participated in 987 plays from scrimmage, giving them a rank of 16th in pro football. The Falcons are granting 24.0 PPG, which ranks 20th in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Saints-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Saints +3.5

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.