New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Giants +3.5

Total-Over-Under: 43.5

Northwest Stadium is the site where the Washington Commanders (1-3) will go up against the New York Giants (3-1) on Sunday. Washington is 3.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over-under comes in at 43.5.

The New York Giants head into this game 3-1 for the season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Giants stepped onto the field against the Arizona Cardinals and went home with a win by a final score of 36-24. Cam Skattebo led the offense in rushing for the Giants with 18 carries for 58 yds (3.2 yards per attempt). Malik Nabers held an average of 18.7 yds per catch by notching 112 yards on 6 receptions. Jameis Winston went 18-29 with 250 yds through the air and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 95.5 and ended the game with 2 interceptions. When it came to stopping the run, the Giants conceded 123 yds on 26 attempts, which is 4.7 yds per run surrendered. New York relinquished 21 completions on 35 tries for a total of 147 yards, and a completion percentage of 60.0%. Once the final whistle blew, they ran 57 plays which totaled 319 yds. The New York Giants ended up running the ball 28 times and had 87 yds, which is an average of 3.1 yds per attempt.

The Giants have earned 1,133 total yards for this campaign. New York has accumulated 39 1st downs as a team, and they have been called for 29 infractions for 266 total yards. With reference to scoring, New York has produced 6 touchdowns through the air and 1 rushing touchdown. They have given the ball to the opposition 5 different times (3 picks and 2 fumbles lost). Collectively, they're averaging 110.5 rushing yds giving them a rank of 12th in the league. When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the New York Giants are sitting at 20.5 points per game.

The Giants currently sit 8th in the league when talking about their defensive abilities, granting 19.8 points per outing. The opposition is running for 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground and 109.0 rushing yds per game on the campaign. With reference to passing yards, the Giants have yielded 821 yds, which has them ranked 10th in pro football. They have allowed 205.3 total yards per contest via the pass, and are conceding a completion rate of 64.7%. In total, they are surrendering 314.3 yards per game, which is good for 9th in the league. They have yielded 9 touchdowns by way of the pass, and 2 touchdowns by way of the ground game. All in all, they have granted 436 yards via the ground game in 4 games this year.

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The Commanders step on the gridiron with a record of 1-3 on the season. In their last game, the Commanders took a loss by a final score of 30-13 when they faced the Indianapolis Colts. Athan Kaliakmanis (1 touchdown) ended the contest with 186 yards on 15-33 passing while his QB rate was 60.9. He tossed 1 interception and his Y-A was 5.6 yards. Dyami Brown was featured in the passing game for the Commanders, grabbing 3 footballs for 65 yds (21.7 yds per catch). Marcus Mariota ran the ball 1 times for 35 yards, walking away from the game with 35.0 yds per carry for Washington. The Commanders finished the game with 317 yards on 59 plays (5.4 yards per play). Washington ran for 4.5 yds per attempt, finishing the contest with 100 yds on 22 carries. Washington conceded 30 attempts on the ground for 128 yards (4.3 yds per rush). The Commanders pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 55.9%, relinquishing 129 yards on 19 for 34 passing.

The Washington Commanders maintain an average of 314.8 total yards per contest, which has them ranking 19th in pro football. They average 124.0 rushing yards per outing, and have toted the ball for 496 yds. They have allowed 1 interception while conceding 1 fumble, and have been able to record 38 1st downs as a unit. The Washington offense has surrendered 224 yards by way of 30 infractions, which has them ranked 16th in pro football if you analyze giving up free yards. So far this season, the Commanders have racked up 763 yards through the air and have an average of 190.8 yards through the air per contest, which has them ranked 23rd in pro football. When it comes to the points being put on the board, the Commanders currently rank 16th in pro football, maintaining an average of 22.0 points per game.

They have relinquished 11 touchdowns through the air in addition to 242.5 pass yds per contest, ranking them 25th in the league. Washington has yielded a total of 374 running yds (93.5 yards per contest), in addition to 3 touchdowns to rushers so far this year. The defense has amassed 5 turnovers (2 forced fumbles and 3 picks) for the year. Overall, they have given up 122 points. The Commanders defense has participated in 237 plays from scrimmage, which has them ranked 9th in pro football. The Commanders are surrendering 30.5 points per game, which has them ranked 30th in pro football.

Who will win tonight's Giants-Commanders NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Giants +3.5

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