New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 1/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 17

Game: New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Bills (-6.5)

Total-Over-Under: 38

Highmark Stadium is where the Buffalo Bills (11-5) will attempt to defeat the New York Jets (3-13) on Sunday. New York is 6.5-point underdogs. The over-under is set at 38.

The New York Jets head into this game 3-13 over the course of this year. In their last game, the Jets faced the New England Patriots and went home with a loss by a final score of 42-10. Brady Cook went 19-33 with 152 yards passing. He had a QB rate of 56.6 and finished the contest with 1 interception. Isaiah Williams averaged 7.5 yards per catch by accumulating 30 yds on 4 receptions. Breece Hall was the leader on the ground for the Jets with 14 carries for 111 yards (7.9 yards per attempt). When all was said and done, they ran 62 plays for 307 yards. The New York Jets ran the rock 28 times and amassed 164 yds, which came out to an average of 5.9 yards per attempt. In the running game, the Jets gave up 155 yards on 36 tries, which is an average of 4.3 yds per rush allowed. New York conceded 22 completions on 25 tries for a total of 285 yds, and a completion rate of 88.0%.

When talking about getting the ball in the endzone, the Jets average 18.3 points per outing. As a unit, they have an average of 126.7 rushing yds which ranks 7th in professional football. The Jets have attained 4,359 total yards over the course of this season. New York has accumulated 131 1st downs as an offense, and they have committed 106 infractions for 882 total yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 23 times (13 picks and 10 lost fumbles). When talking about putting the ball in the endzone, New York has tallied 14 passing touchdowns and 11 TD's via the ground game.

The Jets sit 30th in pro football regarding opponents scoring, allowing 29.3 PPG. They are allowing an average of 4.4 yards per run and 135.0 running yds per contest for this campaign. When examining passing yds, the Jets have allowed 3,415 yards, which has them ranking 16th in pro football. They have granted 213.4 yards per outing through the air, and are surrendering a completion percentage of 64.6%. All in all, they are relinquishing 348.4 total yards per outing, putting them 23rd in pro football. They have conceded 32 touchdowns via the pass, in addition to 19 touchdowns via the ground game. Altogether, they have granted 2,160 yards via the running game in 16 outings on the campaign.

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The Bills step on the gridiron with a record of 11-5 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bills took a loss by a final score of 13-12 when they played the Philadelphia Eagles. Josh Allen finished the contest with 262 yards on 23-35 passing while his quarterback rating was 88. He didn't throw any interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.5 yds. James Cook carried the football 20 times for 74 yds, finishing the game with 3.7 yards per carry for Buffalo. Khalil Shakir was the top contributor in the passing game for the Bills, bringing in 6 footballs for 35 yds (5.8 yds per reception). Buffalo rushed the football for 3.6 yds per carry, totaling 120 yards on 33 carries. The Bills finished the game with a total of 331 yards while they ran 68 plays (4.9 yds per play). The Bills pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 48.1%, relinquishing 108 yds on 13 out of 27 through the air. Buffalo relinquished 26 rush attempts for 82 yards (3.2 yds per carry).

The Buffalo Bills have an average of 370.4 total yards per outing, putting them 5th in pro football. They have an average of 156.4 rushing yds per game, and have toted the ball for 2,503 yds. They have recorded 10 interceptions while surrendering 9 fumbles lost, and have been able to earn 180 first downs offensively. The Buffalo offense has surrendered 820 yards on 98 penalties, which has them ranking 21st in pro football regarding making mistakes. On the campaign, the Bills have thrown for a total of 3,424 yards via the pass and hold an average of 214.0 yards via the pass per outing, putting them 18th in pro football. When examining their ability to score points, the Bills rank 6th in pro football, with 27.9 points per outing.

The Bills are allowing 22.3 PPG, which has them ranked 12th in pro football. They have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air in addition to 163.4 yards through the air per game, ranking this team at 1st in football. Buffalo has surrendered a total of 2,246 rushing yards (140.4 total yards per game), in addition to 24 touchdowns via the ground game over the course of the season. The Bills defense has participated in 904 plays from scrimmage, giving them a rank of 1st in pro football. The defense has notched 20 takeaways (7 fumbles forced and 13 interceptions) on the year. Altogether, they have relinquished 357 points.

Who will win tonight's Jets-Bills NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Bills -6.5

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