Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, 10/1/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026

Location: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: Prime Video

Odds-Point Spread: Steelers -2.5

Total-Over-Under: 37.5

The Cleveland Browns (2-1) will go up against the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Huntington Bank Field on Thursday. Pittsburgh opens this matchup as 2.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 37.5.

The Pittsburgh Steelers head into this game 2-1 over the course of this season. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Steelers took the field against the Cincinnati Bengals and notched a win by a score of 30-27. Jaylen Warren led the offense in rushing for the Steelers with 17 attempts for 127 yds (7.5 yds per carry). Darnell Washington had an average of 22.3 yards per reception by tallying 67 yards on 3 receptions. Aaron Rodgers went 19-34 with 292 yds passing and 3 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 101.6 and walked away from the game with 1 interception. On the ground, the Steelers gave up 83 yds on 18 tries, which calculates to 4.6 yds per run allowed. Pittsburgh surrendered 28 pass completions on 37 tries for a total of 269 yds, and a completion rate of 75.7%. For the game, they had 57 plays for 411 yards. The Pittsburgh Steelers ended up rushing 23 times and totaled 138 yards, which had them averaging 6.0 yards per attempt.

Concerning putting the ball in the endzone, the AFC representatives are averaging 17.7 points per contest. As a team, they are sitting at 95.7 rush yds which has them sitting 22nd in football. The Steelers have notched 910 total yards so far this season. Pittsburgh has racked up 33 first downs offensively, and they have been called for 17 penalties for 148 total yards. They have turned the ball over 4 different times (2 picks and 2 fumbles). If you're looking at getting the ball in the endzone, Pittsburgh currently has 4 passing touchdowns and no touchdowns via the ground.

If you look at pass yards, the Steelers have allowed 578 yards, ranking this team at 8th in professional football. They have surrendered 192.7 yds per contest through the air, and are granting a completion percentage of 66.7%. In total, they have relinquished 339 yards via the running game in 3 matchups for this campaign. They have relinquished 4 touchdowns via the pass, and 1 touchdown to rushers. Altogether, they are relinquishing 305.7 total yards per contest, ranking this team at 7th in professional football. They are giving up 4.4 yards per run and 113.0 rush yards per contest on the campaign. The Steelers sit 11th in pro football when analyzing opponents scoring, conceding 20.0 points per outing.

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The Browns come into this matchup holding a record of 2-1 for this campaign. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Browns took home the win by a final score of 21-18 against the Carolina Panthers. Quinshon Judkins ran the ball 18 times for 70 yds, finishing the game with 3.9 yards per attempt for Cleveland. Harold Fannin had the best day in terms of receiving for the Browns, grabbing 7 throws for 51 yds (7.3 yds per reception). Deshaun Watson (2 TDs) finished the game with 144 yards on 16-30 passing while his quarterback rating was 88.7. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 4.8 yds. Cleveland gave up 23 rush attempts for 98 yds (4.3 yds per carry). The Browns pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 54.2%, surrendering 262 yards on 26 out of 48 passing. The Browns finished the game with 259 yds and they ran 61 plays (4.2 yds per play). Cleveland ran the ball for 4.4 yards per tote, totaling 132 yards on 30 attempts.

If you look at the points being put on the board, the Browns are 25th in the league, scoring 18.0 points per outing. In this season, the Browns have a total of 535 passing yards and hold an average of 178.3 passing yards per outing, which ranks 28th in pro football. They have an average of 87.7 rush yds per contest, and have run for 263 total yards. The Cleveland Browns have an average of 266.0 total yards per contest, putting them 30th in professional football. The Cleveland offense has granted 209 total yards on 29 penalties, putting them 2nd in professional football with reference to making mistakes. They have compiled 1 interception while surrendering 2 fumbles, and have been able to obtain 26 1st downs as a unit.

They have granted 6 touchdowns via the pass and 224.0 yards through the air per contest, which ranks them 18th in football. Cleveland has conceded a total of 361 rush yards (120.3 yds per contest), as well as no touchdowns via the rush this season. The D has accrued 2 turnovers this year. Overall, they have relinquished 71 total points. The Browns defense has participated in 192 plays, ranking this team at 20th in professional football. The Browns are allowing 23.7 points per outing, putting them 18th in the league.

Who will win tonight's Steelers-Browns NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Steelers -2.5

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