College Football Picks: Auburn vs. Alabama Odds and Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 11/25/2010
I say it all the time: to be the champs you gotta beat the champs.
No. 2 Auburn puts its National Championship dreams on the line this week as it heads to No. 11 Alabama to face the Crimson Tide. This game is set to kickoff at 2:30 p.m. on Friday in Tuscaloosa and the defending national champion Crimson Tide are looking to derail the Tigers in one of the most bitter rivalry games in the country.
Last year the roles were reversed a bit in the Iron Bowl. Alabama was the undefeated team last November when they traveled to face Auburn. The Crimson Tide got a four-yard touchdown pass from Greg McElroy with 1:24 to play and escaped with a slim win en route to an SEC and BCS Championship.
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This year undefeated Auburn has already locked up a slot in the SEC Championship Game next weekend against South Carolina. And win or lose this week, the odds are that a trip to the BCS National Championship Game is going to be based on how they perform in Atlanta next weekend. However, this is still one of the most bitter rivalries in the nation and you know that the Tigers are going to dig deep this weekend.
Both teams have had a little extra time to prepare for this game. Auburn has had two weeks to prep while Alabama barely exerted itself last Thursday in a 63-7 maiming of Georgia State.
Alabama has won the Iron Bowl each of the past two years after losing six straight to their in-state rivals. Auburn’s last visit to Tuscaloosa resulted in a 36-0 thrashing at the hands of the Tide. Last year Auburn covered as a 10-point home underdog, losing a heartbreaker
The biggest story in college football over the last month has been the issues surrounding Auburn quarterback and Heisman Trophy frontrunner Cam Newton. The Tigers quarterback and members of his family may or may not be involved in some shady, back alley dealing. However, despite the specter of impropriety, Newton continues to play and to excel. He has been a man amongst boys this year and is the triggerman of the No. 6 offense in the country.
Alabama has a full core of players back from last year’s title team, especially on offense. They boast the No. 26 unit in the land and are No. 20 in scoring this year at 35.3 points per game. Also, despite massive attrition to graduation and injury the Crimson Tide have built up the No. 7 defense in the country and the No. 3 scoring defense in the nation.
Auburn at Alabama Odds and Line Movement
Alabama is favored over the No. 1 team in the country this week and the number is climbing. This game opened with Alabama -3.5, according to college football odds, and has been bet up to -4.5 for the defending champions despite the fact that two of every three wagers in this game are coming down on the Tigers. The total for this game has been firm at 58.0.
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
‘Under’ is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Alabama.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Auburn at Alabama College Football Picks and Predictions
I like the Crimson Tide in this game. Perhaps foolishly, I do not completely buy into this Auburn team. Newton is ridiculous and is a one-man wrecking crew. However, they still have a very mediocre defense that is rated No. 49 overall and No. 100 in the country against the pass. I keep waiting for that to catch up to this team.
Auburn has been on the ropes several times this year – at South Carolina, against Arkansas and Georgia – but Newton has bailed them out.
There is no doubt that this game means infinitely more to Alabama. Auburn can’t help but look ahead a bit to next week’s SEC title game, which is basically a playoff game for them on their way to a potential BCS championship. For Alabama, this one is about pride and it is about spoiling Auburn’s dream season.
I think that Nick Saban is the better coach with the better all-around offense. I also think that we’re getting the better defense and a big home field edge in our favor here. Further, I think the fact that the No. 11 team is favored over the No. 2 team in the nation speaks volume about what the books expect in this one.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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