College Football Picks: Florida State vs. Miami Betting Odds and Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 10/9/2010
No. 24 Florida State and No. 14 Miami are set for a showdown for Sunshine State supremacy on Saturday. The Seminoles and Hurricanes will meet at 8 p.m. in South Florida for one of the ACC’s biggest rivalry games. Miami is set as the favorite but Florida State’s seniors will be looking for one last upset in one is one of the top rivalries in college football.
There have been five straight upsets in this series and the underdog has won a whopping seven of the last eight meetings. The road team, which is generally always the dog, has won four straight and the schools have alternated victories in each of those contests.
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Also, this is traditionally one of the most hotly contested and hardest hitting conference rivalry games in the nation. And as a result it has produced a bevy of tight, dramatic finishes over the last decade. The last nine meetings have been determined by eight points or less and six of the last nine matchups have been determined by four points or less. The last four seasons the average margin of victory has been just four points.
Last year Miami went into Tallahassee and left with a 38-34 victory as a six-point underdog. Florida State actually drove to the Miami two-yard line with 14 seconds to play looking for the winning score. But three straight incomplete passes ended in a disappointment for the host Seminoles.
Florida State enters this game playing as well as anyone in the nation. After getting humiliated at Oklahoma on Sept. 11 the Seminoles have won three straight games by 20 points or more, beating BYU and Wake Forest at home and then laying into Virginia on the road. FSU has been dominating the line of scrimmage with a veteran offensive and defensive line. They are No. 26 in rushing offense and No. 29 in scoring at 35 points per game. They are also No. 4 in the nation in rush defense and No. 20 in points allowed (15.4 ppg).
The Miami Hurricanes football schedule has seen them play a three-game road stretch that rivals anything that any team in the country will have to face this year. They were rolled in the second half at Ohio State on Sept. 11 before winning back-to-back games at Pittsburgh (31-3) and at Clemson (30-21). Miami’s defense has been just as athletic and active as that of the Seminoles, and the Hurricanes are exceptional at No. 12 in total defense and No. 16 in points allowed (15.0).
It is natural to assume that because we have two of the top defenses in the country that this will be a lower-scoring game. However, that hasn’t been the case in each of the last three years while these matchups have produced an average of 72.6 points per game. All three games easily sailed ‘over’ the total. Those shootouts were a complete reversal of what we witnessed the previous five seasons, in which these teams produced five straight ‘unders’ and an average of just 26.4 points per game. (Yes, you read that right: in five seasons they combined for just 26.4 points per game.)
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes Football Betting Odds
Miami is a healthy six-point favorite in this game, according to the latest college football lines, but that number is actually down from an open of the Hurricanes at -7.0. The total on this game is 48.5.
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes Betting Trends
‘Under’ is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.
Underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes College Football Picks and Betting Predictions
Take the underdog. There is simply no reason not to. The underdog has been such a great wager and the games have been so closely contested over the last decade that catching six points in this game is a nice value. Miami might have a bit more talent on the roster from players 1-60, but I don’t see a significant disparity between the two programs. Certainly not enough to expect a blowout.
I also trust senior Christian Ponder for FSU much more than Miami’s Jacory Harris. Harris is basically the Rex Grossman of college football. (And that’s not a compliment.) Harris is a turnover dispenser and in a game that should be tight that can make all of the difference. Miami hasn’t been very good running the ball (No. 77) and if Florida State can make Miami one-dimensional then I think Harris will fold.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional NFL and college football handicapper for Doc’s Sports. So far this year he has banked $5,000 in profit for his clients after back-to-back weeks of over $2,000 in profit. He has brought in nearly $10,000 in overall profit in all sports over the last two-plus months. He has a College Football Game of the Year on the card this week and he’s looking for more today. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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